The sharp price surge of three key raw materials has squeezed profit margins, prompting over 60 tire manufacturers to collectively raise prices.

Prices of core tire raw materials—including natural rubber, carbon black, and synthetic rubber—saw a rare simultaneous surge in 2026. These materials constitute over 70% of tire production costs; such pronounced volatility at the raw-material level directly triggered collective price adjustments across downstream enterprises. Since September, more than 60 tire companies have jointly issued over 70 price-increase notices, covering all-steel tires, bias-ply tires, and off-the-road (OTR) tires, with typical increases ranging from 2% to 5%. Synchronized price hikes across the three key raw materials Natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and carbon black all surged simultaneously, sharply increasing tire manufacturers’ costs. General Tire explicitly stated in its price-adjustment notice: “Recently, affected by global market conditions, prices of our key raw materials—natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and carbon black—have risen substantially and continuously, causing a sharp increase in tire manufacturing costs.” Carbon black’s surge stems from cost pressure. Its price rose over 75%, hitting a six-year high. The primary driver was the sharp rise in its feedstock, coal tar. Huachuang Securities noted that tight supply of Shanxi coking coal pushed coking coal prices higher; many coke plants cut output due to losses, directly causing severe shortages of coal tar. According to data from the China Rubber Industry Association, based on coal tar market prices in early September, the entire carbon black industry incurred losses exceeding RMB 120 million in September. Natural rubber’s rise reflects price expectations. As of October 9, natural rubber’s year-to-date gain reached 28.27%, a nine-year high. Yet industry insiders point out that neither rubber imports nor domestic output have significantly declined; the price increase is largely driven by market expectations. From an industrial-cycle perspective, the expansion of rubber-tree tapping areas globally has slowed, pushing supply into a contraction phase. Climatically, above-average rainfall in Southeast Asia—the main producing region—has reduced tapping days. Macroeconomically, expectations of global liquidity easing have drawn capital into commodities, amplifying price volatility. GF Futures further notes that rubber prices have become markedly more sensitive to weather disruptions. Synthetic rubber’s surge stems from geopolitical tensions. Ongoing instability in the Middle East—and resulting disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—spurred a sharp rise in international oil prices. As synthetic rubber is oil-derived, its prices rose broadly by 15%–20%. Butadiene—a byproduct of petroleum cracking and a core feedstock for synthetic rubber—surged over 100% in Q1, driving synthetic rubber prices sharply upward. The IMF forecasts high oil prices may persist until 2027. The combined price surges of natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and carbon black have placed obvious cost pressure on tire manufacturers—explaining why over 60 companies jointly issued notices and over 70 price-increase notices covered the full product range. How long will high raw-material prices persist? Wei Yu, Senior Researcher at CITIC Futures, notes that Q4 is more likely to be a period where “current expectations are further validated.” Based on current fundamental analysis, this premium may continue. Upside potential requires dynamic assessment: the overall trend remains bullish, but margin for error is narrowing—timing matters more than direction. From the natural rubber cycle perspective, supply contraction driven by aging rubber-tree plantations is the dominant medium-term theme. New planting area in major producing countries has shrunk continuously since the peak rubber prices of 2011–2012. Globally, the average age of tapped rubber trees continues rising. Moreover, the confirmed emergence of a strong El Niño event—if it materially disrupts tapping during its peak phase (November–December), the narrative of tightening supply will be reinforced once again.

What is the trend in the nonferrous metals stock sector?

Disclaimer: The following content is based solely on publicly available information for industry-structure and representative-company analysis, and does not constitute investment advice in any form. Today, the precious-metals and nonferrous-metals sectors posted steep declines—essentially reflecting profit-taking after prior sharp gains, rather than a breakdown in underlying commodity fundamentals. Gold prices continued strengthening (COMEX gold broke above USD 4,750/oz, hitting a three-month high), yet A-share precious-metals stocks fell 5.8% and nonferrous-metals stocks dropped 3.9%, exhibiting a classic “equity-commodity divergence”: strong commodity prices but weak equity performance. The core reason is excessive prior gains and crowded positions; ahead of upcoming macro events (the Jackson Hole Symposium, August 28–29; PCE data release, August 27), investors opted to “take profits first, then reassess.” 1. Equity-Commodity Divergence: Strong Commodities, Weak Equities Dimension Precious-Metals Sector Nonferrous-Metals Sector Today’s Change −5.8% −3.9% Net Main-Force Buying −RMB 946 million Not available 5-Day Change +6.26% Not available Gold Price COMEX gold broke above USD 4,750/oz, a three-month high LME copper hit USD 14,273/ton, a record high Gold 9999 RMB 1,009.8/gram, up 14.56% over the past month SHFE copper futures (main contract) at RMB 108,110/ton Core Contradiction: Gold and copper prices continue hitting new highs, yet A-share mining stocks corrected sharply—not because commodity fundamentals deteriorated, but because A-share mining equities carry leverage: their price elasticity far exceeds that of the underlying commodities themselves. For example, a 10% commodity price rise may drive equity prices up 20–30%; conversely, profit-taking triggers proportionally larger equity corrections than futures. 2. Three Drivers Behind Profit-Taking Driver Specific Manifestation Impact Direction Excessive Prior Gains Precious-metals sector up 6.26% over five days; the Huaxia Gold ETF (159562) rose over 14% in one month Crowded positions, concentrated profit-taking Approaching Macro Events Jackson Hole Symposium (August 28–29); PCE data release (August 27) Investors prefer “take profits first, then reassess” Stock-Specific Rumors Zijin Mining terminated its proposed USD 28-billion joint acquisition of a gold company, opting instead for a 9.2% minority stake Short-term traders interpreted this as “slower-than-expected expansion,” using it as a pretext to sell off shares

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