The UK warns that it has only one week of natural gas supply left.

But the UK’s total natural gas storage capacity is only about 10%—or even less—of that of France, Germany, or the Netherlands, significantly reducing the UK’s resilience. Oil prices also surged on Friday to their highest level since October. Brent crude rose to $80.76 per barrel amid cold weather affecting households and growing concerns that potential U.S. sanctions could disrupt Russian oil supplies. UK natural gas storage is under particular strain due to surging energy demand caused by cold weather—especially at Centrica’s Rough storage facility, located in seabed rock off the east coast. Centrica has been seeking government support to expand the Rough facility. The company stated that since early November, Rough has supplied nearly 420 million cubic meters of natural gas—enough to heat three million homes daily—and has played a critical role this winter so far. The Rough natural gas storage facility first opened in 1985 and operated until 2017, when it was closed by the then-government, which deemed its operating costs too high. Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine—which triggered an energy crisis—the facility was partially reopened in 2022, but at only one-fifth of its original capacity. Since then, Centrica has repeatedly called on the government to support its efforts to restore the facility to full scale. Under the proposed plan, the company would fund the £2 billion expansion itself, but seeks government-backed ‘floor-and-ceiling’ support mechanisms to stabilize operational and maintenance costs. Ultimately, as the UK phases out natural gas, the site is intended for hydrogen storage. Centrica—serving 7.5 million residential energy customers—says the UK is currently living hand-to-mouth, heavily reliant on imported energy whose supply and cost are both highly uncertain. It argues the country urgently needs more storage infrastructure as a ‘safety net’. O’Shea stated that if the Rough project had been fully operational over the past two winters, consumers would have saved £5.2 billion; with expansion, households could save £100 annually on gas and energy bills each winter. He added: “As we strive toward clean energy by 2030, long-duration energy storage will be more essential than ever to balance a system increasingly dependent on renewables. ‘Storage keeps the lights on and homes warm when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing—so investing in our storage capacity makes strong economic sense. We must view storage as a highly valuable insurance policy. Like any insurance policy, it may not always be needed—but having greater capacity helps guard against worst-case scenarios.’ According to analysts, earlier this week this situation brought the country ‘to the brink of blackouts’, with gas-fired power plants paying over £2 million per hour just to stay online. A spokesperson for 10 Downing Street said: ‘With our diverse and resilient energy system, we are confident we have sufficient natural gas supply and electricity capacity to meet demand this winter. ‘We engage regularly with the National Energy System Operator to monitor energy security and ensure they have all available tools to safeguard our supply when needed.’

The UK’s worst-case scenario for winter: planned three-hour power cuts in some areas.

National Grid has warned that some UK households could face three-hour power cuts during peak periods this winter—if natural gas supplies become severely constrained. The company described such an outcome as ‘unlikely’, but added that supply disruptions remain possible should the energy crisis escalate. Load reduction measures—including controlled power cuts—could occur during peak demand hours, and customers would be notified in advance. Households would receive at least one day’s notice before any outage, which would likely occur during high-demand periods—possibly in the morning, but more probably between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. On 9 October, the UK Cabinet Office Minister stated in an interview that blackouts this winter are ‘extremely unlikely’. The government, he said, is fully prepared for all eventualities. This winter, more regions across the UK will rely on natural gas imports from the United States and Qatar. In the UK, 85% of households depend on natural gas for heating, and 40% of the country’s electricity comes from gas-fired power stations. New Prime Minister Liz Truss has pledged that the UK will not introduce energy rationing, asserting that the country has ample energy supplies—and that its position is significantly stronger than that of many other nations. EU member states have formally agreed to voluntarily reduce overall electricity consumption by 10%, and to enforce a mandatory 5% reduction during peak hours—a measure described as ‘exceptional’. The European Council stated: ‘Member states shall designate the period from 1 December 2022 to 31 March 2023 as the peak electricity demand period, during which they will reduce consumption.’

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UK gas, power grids ready for winter despite global turmoil, operators say

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