[International Oil Price Watch] What factors contributed to the decline followed by a rebound in international oil prices last week?

On Thursday last week, Brent crude futures closed at USD 59.82 per barrel, down USD 1.30 per barrel from the previous Friday; the weekly average stood at USD 59.75 per barrel, representing a week-on-week decline of USD 2.06 per barrel (–3.34%), with prices fluctuating between USD 58.92 and USD 60.56 per barrel. Since December, the average Brent futures price has been USD 61.67 per barrel, down USD 2.00 per barrel (–3.14%) month-on-month; the year-to-date (2025) average Brent futures price stands at USD 68.40 per barrel, down USD 11.46 per barrel (–14.35%) compared to the 2024 annual average. Last week, the average prices for WTI, Oman, Shanghai, and Murban crude futures were USD 56.05, USD 59.95, CNY 429.43, and USD 60.89 per barrel, respectively—down USD 2.08 per barrel (–3.58%), USD 2.28 per barrel (–3.67%), CNY 16.20 per barrel (–3.63%), and USD 2.33 per barrel (–3.68%) week-on-week. U.S. refined product demand rose week-on-week. For the four weeks ending December 12, U.S. average daily refined product demand stood at 20.521 million barrels, up 0.8% year-on-year but down 0.6% week-on-week; average daily gasoline demand was 8.647 million barrels, down 1.1% year-on-year and 2.2% week-on-week; average daily distillate demand was 3.684 million barrels, down 2.2% year-on-year and 3.0% week-on-week. U.S. crude oil production declined week-on-week, while the number of active oil rigs increased. For the week ending December 12, U.S. crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.843 million barrels per day; crude imports fell by 60,000 barrels per day to 6.525 million barrels per day; crude exports rose by 660,000 barrels per day to 4.664 million barrels per day; net crude imports dropped by 720,000 barrels per day to 1.861 million barrels per day. For the week ending December 14, the U.S. active oil rig count rose by one to 414. U.S. crude oil inventories declined, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose. According to the EIA’s inventory report, for the week ending December 12, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.274 million barrels to 424.42 million barrels—lower than the prior estimate of a 1.066-million-barrel decline; Cushing-area crude inventories dropped by 742,000 barrels to 20.862 million barrels; gasoline inventories rose by 4.808 million barrels to 225.63 million barrels—higher than the prior estimate of a 2.062-million-barrel increase; distillate inventories—which include heating oil and diesel—rose by 1.712 million barrels to 118.5 million barrels, exceeding the prior estimate of a 1.178-million-barrel increase.

U.S. crude oil inventories declined for three consecutive weeks, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose; Venezuela’s crude oil imports hit a near 10-year high.

Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories—excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—declined for the third consecutive week, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose. The EIA reported that, for the week ending September 11, commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR fell by 640,000 barrels to 423.4 million barrels—1% above the five-year average for this time of year. This drawdown was smaller than the market expectation of a 1.4-million-barrel decline. SPR inventories declined by 403,000 barrels to 285 million barrels. Crude oil inventories at the NYMEX delivery hub—Cushing, Oklahoma—fell by 342,000 barrels to 21.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 794,000 barrels to 207.7 million barrels—5% below the five-year average for this period; gasoline demand rose by 247,000 barrels per day to 8.8 million barrels per day. Markets had previously expected gasoline inventories to fall by 800,000 barrels. Distillate fuel inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels to 107.9 million barrels—13% below the five-year average for this period.

US crude stocks and distillate inventories fall, gasoline inventories rise, the EIA says

14 hours ago

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude and distillate inventories fell while gasoline stocks rose last week. Crude stocks dropped by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million, defying analyst expectations of a build.

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