Why did the US EIA raise its global oil price forecast, and what is its updated Brent crude price projection for 2026 and 2027?

The US EIA raised its global oil price forecast due to continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits, which it assumes will persist through August and lead to increased Middle East shut-in crude oil production. As a result, the EIA now forecasts the Brent crude oil spot price to average around $85/bbl in the third quarter of 2026 — up from its July projection of $82/bbl — and expects it to gradually fall to an average of $69/bbl in 2027, compared to the prior estimate of $65/bbl.

What is the current status of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and how does it compare to pre-crisis levels?

According to the Strait of Hormuz tracker, only two vessels transited the Strait in the past 24 hours, while independent tracking data shows 'suppression with single-digit numbers of tankers in both directions'; this contrasts sharply with pre-28 February traffic of around 150 vessels per day. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) maintains a 'severe' threat level, citing active mine danger areas and continued risk of drifting or uncharted mines in the traffic separation scheme.

US EIA raises global oil price estimate as Strait of Hormuz transits remain limited

Aug 11, 2026

The US EIA raised its global oil price forecast due to limited Strait of Hormuz transits, projecting Brent crude at $85/bbl in late 2026. Disruptions impacting one-third of global crude flows affect chemical markets transporting polymers and liquid chemicals.

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US EIA raises global oil price estimate as Strait of Hormuz transits remain limited

US EIA raises global oil price estimate as Strait of Hormuz transits remain limited

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