How long does the US expect oil supply disruptions from the US-Iran war to last, and what is the projected daily volume of disruption?

The US expects oil supply disruptions stemming from the US-Iran war to last through 2027, with disruptions reaching about 600,000 barrels per day through the end of next year (i.e., through the end of 2026), and most production and trade flows not returning to pre-war levels until early 2027.

What impact has the conflict had on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and how do recent figures compare to pre-war levels?

Oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, down sharply from an average of 21.6 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2025—before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran—indicating a severe and sustained reduction in throughput due to the conflict.

US Sees Iran War Oil Supply Disruptions Lasting Through 2027

Aug 11, 2026

The US Energy Information Administration forecasts oil supply disruptions from the US-Iran conflict will persist through 2027, reducing Hormuz shipments by 600,000 barrels daily and raising 2026-2027 fuel price projections.

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US Sees Iran War Oil Supply Disruptions Lasting Through 2027

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US Sees Iran War Oil Supply Disruptions Lasting Through 2027

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