What is Janet Yellen's current view on the likelihood of a US interest-rate cut in 2024, and how does she characterize the impact of the Iran war–driven oil shock?

Janet Yellen stated she still sees 'a chance' or 'entirely possible' prospect for a US interest-rate cut later in the year, calling it 'the main scenario', though she emphasized uncertainty with 'a lot of things are possible'. She characterized the oil shock stemming from the war in Iran as 'a broad supply shock' spreading across multiple sectors—including pump prices, LNG, fertilizers, food, shipping costs, and semiconductors—and noted that while the need to raise rates 'can’t be ruled out', stable long-run inflation expectations make that outcome 'unlikely for now'.

What did Yellen say about Federal Reserve independence and President Trump’s public calls for lower interest rates?

Yellen warned that President Trump’s calls for lower interest rates risk undermining the credibility of the US central bank and the nation, stating such behavior is inconsistent with a developed country whose currency is the dominant global reserve currency; she explicitly compared it to rhetoric heard 'in a banana republic'.

Yellen Sees Chance of Fed Rate Cut Amid Oil Shock Impacting Commodities

Apr 14, 2026

Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen anticipates a US interest rate cut later this year despite an oil shock impacting LNG, fertilizers, and food prices due to the Iran conflict. She emphasizes stable inflation expectations while warning against political pressure on central bank independence.

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