Why did Barclays raise its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $100 per barrel?

Barclays raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $100 per barrel from $85 due to the prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian blockades and U.S. naval enforcement of crude export restrictions have reduced flows to a trickle, accelerating global inventory draws and creating an estimated market deficit of around 6.6 million barrels per day that is likely to widen as the supply shock continues.

What does Barclays say about the significance of $100 per barrel for Brent crude in 2026?

Barclays cautioned that $100 a barrel should not be interpreted as a new equilibrium level where supply and demand have rebalanced; rather, it reflects the severity and persistence of the supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz disruption, with the bank warning that the longer the disruption lasts, the bigger and more persistent the price shock will be.

Barclays lifts 2026 Brent forecast to $100 on prolonged Hormuz disruption

May 1, 2026

Barclays raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $100 per barrel citing prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a 6.6 million barrel-per-day market deficit. Persistent supply shocks could push prices toward $110 if normalisation does not occur by May.

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