Why does Barclays maintain its $100/bbl Brent oil forecast for 2026 despite current prices trading at $105 and heightened supply risks?

Barclays maintains its $100/bbl 2026 average Brent crude forecast because it incorporates a baseline scenario where the Strait of Hormuz eventually reopens, but emphasizes that even under that optimistic assumption, global oil inventories will start from a level roughly 20 million barrels below the tightest point in recent history — reflecting severe structural supply depletion. The bank notes that 14 million barrels per day (14% of global supply) have already been removed from the market due to the conflict affecting major exporters including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait, and that U.S. inventories are nearing their lowest levels since 2020, signaling a 6–8 million bpd deficit. While near-term price pressure is evident — with Brent trading at $105 amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz — Barclays’ $100 forecast represents a forward-looking average that balances persistent demand resilience against potential normalization, not a prediction of imminent price decline.

What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz closure according to Barclays’ analysis, and how much supply has been disrupted?

According to Barclays, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is highly significant because it previously handled around 20% of global energy supplies, and its disruption — combined with broader conflict-related outages — has removed 14 million barrels per day (14% of global oil supply) from the market, specifically from key producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait. The bank stresses that even if the strait were to fully reopen immediately, the starting inventory position would still be approximately 20 million barrels below the tightest historical level, underscoring the depth of the supply shock. This inventory shortfall, coupled with U.S. stockpiles approaching their lowest since 2020 and signaling a 6–8 million bpd deficit, means the market is operating under extreme physical tightness — a condition that supports elevated prices and explains why Barclays views the upside risks to its $100/bbl 2026 forecast as skewed higher.

Barclays Keeps $100 Brent Oil Forecast for 2026 But Risks Skew Higher

May 21, 2026

Barclays maintains its 2026 Brent crude price forecast at $100 per barrel, though geopolitical tensions in the Middle East skew risks higher. Supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz and low inventories signal potential market tightness.

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