What is Barclays' updated 2026 Brent oil price forecast, and how does the Strait of Hormuz impasse affect it?

Barclays maintains its $96/bbl Brent oil price forecast for 2026, but identifies upside risks contingent on the duration of the Strait of Hormuz impasse: a $2/bbl increase if it lasts one more month, $7/bbl for two months, and $10/bbl for three months — potentially pushing the forecast to $106/bbl in the latter scenario. The bank notes that spot prices could temporarily surge to $150/bbl under the three-month impasse case, reflecting acute supply disruption fears, as the Strait of Hormuz previously handled about one-fifth of global energy supplies. This risk stems from renewed hostilities causing oil prices to spike to $100/bbl — the highest since May — before easing slightly below that level on Friday.

How does Barclays expect the global oil market balance to evolve in 2026 and 2027 amid the Strait of Hormuz tensions?

Barclays’ outlook, aligned with a Reuters analyst poll, points to a deepened global oil deficit in 2026 due to the Strait of Hormuz conflict, but expects a reversal into oversupply in 2027 driven by recovering Gulf oil flows, robust U.S. production, and weaker demand from China. The bank’s unchanged forecasts of $96/bbl for 2026 and $85/bbl for 2027 reflect this shift — with the $85/bbl 2027 projection implying a $11/bbl year-on-year decline — underscoring how near-term geopolitical supply risks are offset by medium-term fundamentals favoring surplus conditions.

Barclays sees upside risks to 2026 Brent price view given Strait of Hormuz impasse

Jul 24, 2026

Barclays warns of upside risks to its 2026 Brent forecast due to Strait of Hormuz tensions, projecting potential price increases of up to $10 per barrel if the impasse persists. Spot prices could reach $150/bbl in severe scenarios.

reuters

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