Why does Barclays believe the UAE's exit from OPEC will lead to faster oil supply growth?

Barclays believes the UAE's exit from OPEC will lead to faster oil supply growth because it removes the constraint of OPEC+ production quotas, thereby assuring potential investors that the country's economic recovery will not be hindered by collective output limits.

What is the current status of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and why does it matter for UAE oil exports?

Tanker flow through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely muted, with the three-day moving average of crude oil and refined product vessels (including LPG) down about 95% from last year; this matters because the Strait handles about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, and its near-closure — due to stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks — constrains the UAE’s ability to translate new production capacity into actual exportable supply, regardless of its OPEC exit.

Barclays sees faster oil supply growth from UAE after its exit from OPEC

Apr 29, 2026

Barclays forecasts accelerated oil supply growth from the UAE following its OPEC exit, while ANZ warns geopolitical factors will limit immediate price impacts. Tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly down compared to last year.

reuters

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