What is the Reuters poll's forecast for China's official manufacturing PMI in July, and what does that level indicate?

The Reuters poll of 31 economists forecasts that China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) will drop to 50.0 in July from 50.3 in June; a reading of 50.0 is the threshold separating growth from contraction, indicating that factory activity is expected to stall — neither expanding nor contracting — amid weak domestic consumption and Middle East–driven cost pressures, despite strong global demand for Chinese goods.

Why is major economic stimulus considered unlikely by analysts ahead of the Politburo meeting at the end of July?

Major stimulus is considered unlikely because soaring goods exports — which surged 27% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms in June — have emerged as a main growth driver, blunting the urgency for strong policy intervention; instead, policymakers are expected to focus on implementing existing tools, such as stepping up funding for infrastructure projects, rather than introducing new large-scale measures.

China's Factory Activity Expected to Stall in July: Reuters Poll

Jul 29, 2026

A Reuters poll forecasts China's manufacturing PMI may drop to 50.0 in July, signaling stagnation amid weak domestic consumption and cost pressures from the Middle East conflict. Policymakers face pressure to boost demand while exports remain strong.

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