What is the expected reading for China's official manufacturing PMI in May, and what does it signify?

The median forecast from a Reuters poll of 14 economists expects China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) to drop to 50 in May from 50.3 in April, hitting the threshold that separates growth from contraction — meaning factory activity likely remained flat after two months of expansion.

What external factors are cited in the article as weighing on China's manufacturing sector in May?

The article cites weak domestic demand and cost pressures stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran — which caused ongoing logistics disruptions, price shocks, and closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil supply chokepoint — as key external factors weighing on China's manufacturing sector in May.

China's Factory Activity Likely Remained Flat in May: Reuters Poll

May 28, 2026

A Reuters poll forecasts China's manufacturing PMI to drop to 50 in May, reflecting stagnation driven by weak demand and cost pressures from Middle East conflicts. Rising input costs and energy price volatility continue to impact the industrial sector despite resilient exports.

reuters

2026-04-28

China's Factory Activity Set to Expand at Slower Clip in April: Reuters Poll

2026-05-28

China's Factory Activity Likely Remained Flat in May: Reuters Poll

2026-06-28

China's Factory Activity Likely Returned to Meagre Growth in June: Reuters Poll

2026-07-29

China's Factory Activity Expected to Stall in July: Reuters Poll

China's Factory Activity Likely Remained Flat in May: Reuters Poll

FAQ