What is the expected change in China's official manufacturing PMI for April, and what does it indicate about factory activity?

According to the Reuters poll of 27 economists, China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is expected to drop to 50.1 in April from 50.4 in March, indicating that factory activity is set to expand at a slower pace. A reading above 50 signals expansion, but the decline suggests weakening momentum in the manufacturing sector, likely driven by rising cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.

Why does the article describe the March reversal of China's 41-month factory-gate deflation as 'not friendly to the economy'?

The article states that factory-gate prices in China reversed a 41-month deflationary streak in March, with sharp price surges in energy-intensive industries like non-ferrous metal mining — driven by higher input costs from the Iran war — rather than stronger domestic demand. ANZ analysts explicitly label this cost-driven inflation as 'not friendly to the economy' because it raises production expenses without reflecting underlying demand recovery, posing risks to growth and profitability.

China's Factory Activity Set to Expand at Slower Clip in April: Reuters Poll

Apr 28, 2026

China's manufacturing PMI is forecast to dip to 50.1 in April amid rising input costs linked to Middle East conflicts affecting energy markets. Factory-gate prices reversed a deflationary streak, signaling pressure on energy-intensive industries.

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China's Factory Activity Set to Expand at Slower Clip in April: Reuters Poll

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