What does the Reuters poll forecast for China's official PMI in June, and what does that number signify?

The Reuters poll of 23 economists forecasts China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) will rise to 50.1 in June from May's 50.0, just above the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction — indicating a return to meagre expansion in factory activity.

Why is China's recent export strength concentrated in high-tech goods, and what risks are emerging for exporters ahead of July?

China's export strength is concentrated in high-tech goods — especially automated data processing equipment, with shipments jumping over 60% year-on-year — driven by strong global demand for AI-related hardware; however, risks are mounting as trade frontloading accelerates shipments in June due to U.S. trade policy uncertainty, with new Section 301 tariffs set to take effect in late July, while overseas buyers begin running down inventories amid rising energy costs and fading stockpiling effects.

China's Factory Activity Likely Returned to Meagre Growth in June: Reuters Poll

Jun 28, 2026

Reuters poll forecasts China's factory activity to grow marginally in June with a PMI of 50.1, supported by high-tech exports. Meanwhile, upstream industrial profits rose sharply while downstream manufacturers face pressure from property crises and fading stockpiles.

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China's Factory Activity Likely Returned to Meagre Growth in June: Reuters Poll

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