Trump says he is 'very seriously considering a diesel export ban'; Goldman Sachs analyzes the 'five impacts' of such a ban.

II. Surge in exports. According to a Goldman Sachs research report, U.S. net diesel exports have risen from approximately 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 to around 1.6 million bpd in recent months, with weekly export volumes hitting nearly 2 million bpd—a historical record—last month. Record-high global diesel refining margins have incentivized refiners to continuously expand exports. III. Pressure from agricultural-state lawmakers. Diesel is the core fuel for agricultural machinery, freight trains, trucks, and delivery vehicles. Lawmakers from multiple agricultural states have already urged Trump to restrict diesel exports during the fall harvest season. Goldman Sachs modeling: The ban is 'highly likely', possibly starting in October In its September 26 research note titled 'Modeling Potential U.S. Diesel Export Restrictions', Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and others conducted a quantitative analysis of a hypothetical scenario: — The ban would begin in early October 2026 and last at least through December (i.e., the 90-day ban discussed in media reports). — Analysts noted this is a 'highly likely scenario, though not our base-case expectation.' Impact I: Short-term decline in U.S. diesel prices Goldman Sachs believes U.S. diesel prices will face mild downward pressure initially following the imposition of the ban. Specific estimate: With storage tanks still having spare capacity, each additional week the ban remains in effect would reduce the U.S. retail diesel price by approximately $0.25 per gallon—nearly 4% of the current $6.50/gallon level. The logic chain: export disruption → domestic inventory buildup → wholesale price pressure → retail price decline. Impact II: Longer bans mean higher gasoline prices This is the most noteworthy counterintuitive effect highlighted in the bank’s analysis. Diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are highly interlinked in the refining process, with limited flexibility to shift output ratios. Once diesel inventories approach tank capacity limits, refiners will be forced to cut operating rates—not only reducing diesel output but also simultaneously constraining gasoline and jet fuel supply. The bank estimates: once diesel tanks are full, each additional week of the ban would exert upward pressure of about $0.30 per gallon on U.S. retail gasoline prices. Under Goldman Sachs’ base-case assumption—assuming cessation of the current ~1.6 million bpd export volume—the U.S. national diesel storage tanks would fill within 9–10 weeks. However, Goldman Sachs notes that refiners would likely begin cutting production *before* tanks reach full capacity, meaning upward pressure on gasoline prices would emerge earlier than this timeline suggests. Impact III: Rising diesel prices outside the U.S. The ban’s shockwaves would extend well beyond U.S. borders. Europe and Latin America (e.g., Brazil, Mexico) are the primary destinations for U.S. diesel exports. The bank estimates that for each week the ban remains in effect, wholesale European diesel (ARA diesel) prices would rise by roughly $3 per barrel—nearly 2%. However, Europe’s strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) holdings of diesel may offset about half of this price increase. As of end-June, OECD member countries in Europe still held 190 million barrels of strategic diesel reserves—equivalent to nearly 500 days of U.S. diesel imports. Goldman Sachs also points out that the supply shock would quickly spill over into Asia—as Latin America and Europe compete for diesel supplies from countries like India. Impact IV: U.S. diesel prices rebound after the ban ends The price suppression caused by the ban would not be permanent. Goldman Sachs notes that once the ban is lifted, U.S. diesel prices would realign with those in Europe, Latin America, and Asia—leading to upward pressure on U.S. diesel prices and a corresponding pullback in overseas prices.

Diesel prices approach the record $6.50 level; the White House weighs suspending federal fuel taxes and lifting restrictions on 'red diesel', while export bans remain under evaluation.

U.S. diesel prices remain persistently high, prompting the Trump administration to weigh multiple intervention options—including suspending the federal fuel tax, relaxing regulations on 'red diesel', and maintaining the diesel export ban proposal under active consideration. Yet, as of now, no policy decision is imminent, and internal deliberations continue. According to Bloomberg, discussions involve key officials including Vice President Vance, Energy Secretary Wright, Interior Secretary Bergum, and Treasury Secretary Bessent. Vance has explicitly urged action to curb rising diesel prices and proactively asked about available policy tools. Meanwhile, Wright revealed that the administration is negotiating with refiners to pursue 'voluntary export reductions' instead of imposing a mandatory export ban—aiming to avoid direct administrative intervention and potential industry backlash. These developments have already delivered a clear market impact. Following Trump’s public remarks supporting diesel export restrictions this week, fuel futures experienced sharp volatility; some refiners have begun inserting protective clauses into contracts to hedge against non-delivery risks should an export ban be enacted. Major U.S. allies—including European nations—have also expressed deep concern over the potential loss of U.S. diesel supplies, warning that such a move would further strain global fuel markets already facing tightening supply conditions. Pump prices near historic highs; governors act first U.S. retail diesel prices currently hover near $6.50 per gallon—approaching the all-time record. Facing mounting pressure, several Republican governors have taken preemptive action ahead of any federal decision. Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency earlier this week, suspending penalties for farmers and loggers using off-road diesel on public roads—extending the relief through the end of October. 'We will not stand idly by while Louisiana farmers harvest their crops at record-high diesel prices,' Landry stated in his announcement. Alabama Governor Kay Ivey followed suit, directing state law enforcement agencies to suspend enforcement of red-diesel restrictions for four months. Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen signed an executive order permitting registered highway vehicles to use off-road diesel without penalty and announced diesel tax rebates for vehicles transporting livestock and agricultural products.

Goldman expects initial diesel price decline under US export curbs

Sep 27, 2026

Goldman Sachs forecasts US diesel prices may initially drop under export bans, but prolonged restrictions could raise gasoline costs and increase European wholesale prices once storage fills.

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