Why does Goldman Sachs expect refined fuel margins to remain elevated through 2026?

Goldman Sachs expects refined fuel margins to remain sharply elevated through 2026 because disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have tightened refined product markets more than crude markets, leading to a year-on-year decline of 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in global refined product exports—driven by halted Persian Gulf product exports and reduced Asian refinery output—while demand is expected to recover faster than supply during the initial Hormuz reopening stage, further straining inventories, especially for diesel and gasoline.

What are Goldman Sachs' forecasts for U.S. and European diesel margins in late 2026 and 2027?

Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. and European diesel margins to reach $50 and $37 per barrel, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2026, and to average $41 and $29 per barrel, respectively, across 2027—reflecting sustained pressure from war-related refinery outages (about 2.5 million bpd in the Middle East), sub-optimal crude slates, ongoing attacks on Russian refining infrastructure, and rising global refinery utilization toward an all-time high as operating capacity falls behind surging demand.

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Goldman Sachs expects elevated refined fuel margins through 2026 on Hormuz disruption

Jun 1, 2026

Goldman Sachs forecasts sustained elevated refined fuel margins through 2026 driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Diesel margins are projected to exceed pre-war forecasts amid global refining capacity constraints and reduced Persian Gulf exports.

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