What is Goldman Sachs' warning about US diesel stocks by August, and what historical context does it provide?

Goldman Sachs warns that US diesel stocks risk falling to a critical threshold of 20 days of supply by August if commercial inventories continue declining at the recent pace, citing the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz; it notes that diesel stocks are already at the lowest level since 2003 and that the last eight weeks have seen the largest draws in US oil stocks in history.

How has the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz affected global oil flows and US diesel supply levels?

The Iran war has upended global oil markets, reducing shipments from Persian Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle — only 10% to 15% of normal volumes (2–3 million barrels per day) — causing millions of barrels of production to be shut in; this has forced US refiners to tap inventories, driving US diesel supplies down from about 36 days of supply at the end of January to 28 days for the week ended May 22, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

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