What oil price scenario does Goldman Sachs warn of if Middle East shipping attacks intensify, and what is their alternative investment recommendation?

Goldman Sachs warns that oil prices could rally to as much as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East broaden and intensify, citing recent escalations including U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers, Tehran’s declaration of a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing U.S. naval blockades of Iranian ports while escorting other producers’ vessels. In response to this heightened geopolitical risk, the bank recommends investors hedge by going long on global natural gas and refined-oil products—particularly diesel—because supply shocks in those markets are larger than in crude oil; indeed, diesel has more than doubled in price this year, and gains in natural gas and petroleum products have outpaced crude oil. Brent crude was last trading near $97, with Goldman maintaining a $80 downside target if regional exports normalize.

How does Goldman Sachs characterize China’s role in stabilizing energy markets amid the Middle East tensions?

According to Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, China is expected to act as a 'stabilizing force' in the crude oil market by reining in imports in response to elevated prices, thereby helping to moderate upward pressure on crude. However, China is not playing the same stabilizing role in the natural gas or refined petroleum products markets—where supply shocks are larger and price gains have outpaced crude—making those segments more vulnerable to geopolitical disruption and thus more attractive for targeted long positions.

Goldman Flags Risk of $120 Oil If Mideast Shipping Attacks Intensify

Sep 6, 2026

Goldman Sachs warns crude oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel if Middle East shipping disruptions intensify, recommending investors hedge via natural gas and refined products amidst geopolitical supply shocks.

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