According to Goldman Sachs, what is the expected global oil supply-demand balance for next year, and how much of it will be offset by strategic reserve rebuilding?

Goldman Sachs expects the global oil market to swing into an oversupply averaging just over 3 million barrels a day next year once flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize; globally, about 1 million barrels a day of crude purchases for Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rebuilding will only partially offset this, leaving a surplus of close to 2 million barrels a day.

What happened to U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels between February and mid-June, and why is this significant?

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stockpiles fell from 415 million barrels at the end of February to 331 million barrels as of June 19 — the lowest level since 1983 — due to releases under the Trump administration to help replenish supplies during the Iran-related crisis, triggering the need for large-scale rebuilding efforts.

Goldman Flags Up Oil Surplus Even as Nations Rebuild Stockpiles

Jun 30, 2026

Goldman Sachs forecasts a global oil surplus of over 3 million barrels daily next year, partially offsetting strategic reserve rebuilding. Crude prices fell 30% last quarter as Strait of Hormuz traffic recovers post-conflict.

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