Why has Goldman Sachs more than doubled its diesel profit forecasts, and what are the new projected diesel refining margins for the US and EU next year?

Goldman Sachs more than doubled its diesel profit forecasts due to rising strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia, which have further constrained already-stretched global refining capacity and pushed refined-products margins to new highs, with diesel at the epicenter of the rally; refinery outages are running 60% above seasonal norms and product stockpiles are falling despite some demand loss, leading the bank to project diesel refining margins of $63 per barrel in the US and $49 per barrel in the EU next year—up from earlier forecasts of $27 and $19 respectively.

What are the key supply-side disruptions cited by Goldman Sachs and industry executives that are driving the global fuels crisis and tightening diesel markets?

Goldman Sachs cites rising strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia, refinery outages running 60% above seasonal norms, and falling product stockpiles despite demand loss; Shell CEO Wael Sawan describes a 'triple threat' of attacks on Russian refineries plus dangers to shipping in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea; TotalEnergies’ Patrick Pouyanne notes that while some crude cargoes transit the Strait of Hormuz, no refined products are currently making it out—highlighting a critical bottleneck in refined-fuel logistics.

Goldman More Than Doubles Diesel Profit View as Wars Hit Flows

Aug 30, 2026

Goldman Sachs more than doubled its diesel profit forecast as geopolitical conflicts constrain global refining capacity. Rising margins and falling stockpiles signal a worsening global fuels crisis driven by export bans and seasonal demand.

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