Saudi Arabia significantly increased its crude oil exports in September; the memorial portrait of Tan Zhen, a Chinese 'Brave Warrior', has been installed.

【Answer 1】 Welcome to 'Xiao Kao Shijie' — a program covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global affairs, humanities, and history! Today, as usual, we begin with developments in the Middle East: 【1.1】In response to Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian officials have issued fresh tough statements: On the 27th, the Iranian military declared it is fully prepared to respond to any renewed U.S. attack. Previously, Trump had rejected Iran’s so-called '7-Day Plan', which proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending hostilities. Iranian state media quoted a military spokesperson as saying that Iran’s armed forces are 'fully prepared for confrontation'. The spokesperson warned that if the U.S. launches another attack on Iran, Washington would suffer far greater losses. What kind of losses? Losses to Iranians’ skulls? The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Army stated that the conflict has entered a 'critical and decisive' phase. He emphasized that Tehran cannot accept a situation where Iran itself is unable to conduct trade while foreign powers continue exploiting this strategically vital waterway—and vowed to seal off the Strait. I’ll omit this official’s name—after all, he’s merely a temporary placeholder; surviving until year-end would already be considered lucky. 【1.2】Saudi Arabia’s September crude oil exports rebounded to 2025 levels: According to shipping data firm Kpler, Saudi Arabia’s seaborne crude oil exports in September rose to 6 million barrels per day (bpd), returning to the country’s average monthly export level projected for 2025. This news surprised me greatly—because in September, Saudi Arabia’s east-west crude oil pipeline was temporarily shut down following a drone strike, and its August crude exports stood at only 3.4 million bpd. It was truly unexpected that exports could rebound so sharply in September. Reports indicate that the pipeline disruption hindered Saudi shipments via Yanbu Port on the Red Sea, prompting Riyadh to urgently adjust its logistics strategy—shifting the bulk of crude exports back to the Strait of Hormuz and loading tankers from Persian Gulf ports, thereby driving a sharp rebound in export figures. Data shows this export surge did not result from increased production, but rather from inventory drawdowns and a switch in transportation routes. Clearly, Saudi Arabia still possesses considerable capability—not just empty talk. A large number of pro-Russian and pro-Iranian media outlets in China’s internet sphere have long been exaggerating the combat prowess of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the Houthi movement, claiming they firmly control both straits—yet these claims have been directly contradicted by Saudi Arabia’s actual oil export figures. According to Caixin Media, with the U.S. Navy having established a new shipping corridor along Oman’s coast, Saudi Arabia has redirected its crude exports back through the Strait of Hormuz. The report further notes that although this route remains vulnerable to Iranian attacks, other Gulf states have relied on it for oil shipments over recent months. Kpler data shows that the seven-day average volume of oil exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz reached 13.2 million bpd on Wednesday—compared to roughly 17 million bpd before the outbreak of the Iran-related shipping disruptions. Though unscientific, if we crudely adopt this seven-day average figure, current Strait throughput stands at about 77% of pre-conflict levels—approaching 80%. Some self-media bloggers claim that 'the vast majority' of merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz voluntarily register with Iran—and readers have asked me to verify this. All I can say is that, based on the massive volume of international news I monitor daily, I have seen no such claim reported by any authoritative or reliable source. I cannot categorically declare this claim false—after all, my own information horizon is limited.

Belgium will deliver three F-16 fighter jets this year; Ukraine successfully intercepted a Russian drone.

【Answer 2】 Welcome to 'Xiao Kao Shijie' — a program covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global affairs, humanities, and history! Today, as usual, we begin with major geopolitical developments in the Middle East and around the world: 【1.1】U.S.-Iran negotiations remain locked in a tug-of-war: Iran’s government spokesperson stated on the 30th that Tehran has received Washington’s formal response to Iran’s '7-Day Proposal'. He added that the Foreign Minister presented the U.S. proposal to the President during today’s cabinet meeting—but declined to disclose its contents. Qatar continues shuttling between the two sides, attempting to broker a ceasefire and restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. However, insiders report progress remains minimal—indicating a wide gulf between the two parties’ positions. Earlier reports suggested the U.S. might ease certain sanctions and unfreeze Iranian assets contingent upon 'concrete progress' on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has denied this. 【1.2】Gulf oil exports remain broadly stable: The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations Office reported that a merchant vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an 'unidentified projectile', causing a fire onboard. The blaze has since been extinguished, and all crew members are safe. Based on this description, the vessel likely sustained only minor damage. From my limited vantage point, verified incidents involving merchant ships attacked in the Strait during September—reported by credible, mainstream sources—number approximately five to six. Both frequency and severity are markedly lower than in previous months. Coupled with the broader recovery in Gulf oil exports—for instance, today’s report citing Goldman Sachs’ estimate that Gulf oil exports have rebounded to roughly 23.3 million bpd, nearing the 2025 average—I am inclined to believe more merchant vessels—especially tankers—are now navigating the Strait with greater confidence. The U.S. Navy’s escort operations have also played a key role in restoring maritime traffic. Nevertheless, global concerns over oil supply persist. Governments worldwide continue releasing strategic reserves. For example, the U.S. is drawing further from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): Washington announced it will make up to 40 million barrels of SPR crude available as loans—the final tranche of its earlier coordinated global release plan. U.S. SPR stocks have fallen to their lowest level since 1982, standing below 284 million barrels. It is precisely due to this interplay of contradictory signals—both reassuring and alarming—that international oil prices have recently hovered near USD 100 per barrel: neither triggering panic, nor permitting complacency. 【1.3】Israeli Defense Minister Katz threatened that Hamas leaders located outside the Gaza Strip remain legitimate targets for Israeli strikes—and Israel will pursue all participants in the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Recently, repeated reports have emerged of Hamas operatives involved in the October 7 assault being hunted down and eliminated by Israel—even far beyond Gaza’s borders. 【1.4】Iranian university students protest compulsory hijab—open campus demonstrations re-emerge: On the 28th, students at Allameh Tabataba’i University in Tehran staged protests. In addition to opposing tuition hikes and deteriorating dormitory and dining conditions, they openly challenged the mandatory hijab rule and demanded the release of detained students. On-site videos show large groups of students gathering and chanting slogans against compulsory veiling, the morality police, and political repression. Reports also indicate that Basij paramilitary personnel on campus attempted to disperse the protesters. What makes this protest noteworthy is students’ linkage of tuition fees, living conditions, women’s dress codes, and political repression into a single, unified grievance.

Goldman Sachs: Gulf Crude Oil Exports Recover to 2025 Levels in September

2 days ago

Goldman Sachs reports Gulf crude exports hit 23.3 million barrels per day in September, matching 2025 averages. The bank predicts Brent prices will stabilize at $85 per barrel by year-end amid balanced global supply and demand.

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