Why does Goldman Sachs maintain its $80 Brent oil price forecast for Q4 2026 despite renewed Middle East conflict?

Goldman Sachs maintains its $80 per barrel Brent oil price forecast for Q4 2026 because the upward price pressure from Middle East production cuts is offset by downward pressure from higher-than-expected regional output in June and slowing global demand.

What are the key upside and downside risks to Goldman Sachs' oil price forecasts, and how severe could their impacts be?

The key upside risk is a sustained disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which could push Brent oil prices above $120 per barrel in Q4 2026 and lift the 2027 average to $100; the key downside risk is oversupply combined with prolonged demand weakness, potentially driving Brent down to just above $60 by end-2027 — though easing U.S.-Iran tensions could mitigate this by supporting supply constraints from the Middle East.

Goldman Sachs Maintains $80 Brent Oil Price Forecast for Q4 2026

Jul 28, 2026

Goldman Sachs maintains its Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast at $80 per barrel despite Middle East tensions, balancing production cuts against demand slowdown. Inventory declines are expected to support prices through summer, though geopolitical risks persist.

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