According to Goldman Sachs, what is the maximum potential reduction in global oil demand by late 2027 due to accelerated EV adoption, and under what scenario does this occur?

Goldman Sachs estimates that global oil demand could be reduced by up to 0.32 million barrels per day (bpd) by late 2027 under its 'Persistent Acceleration' scenario, which assumes regional EV penetration rates continue growing linearly based on the February–May 2026 trends.

What does Goldman Sachs identify as a key factor amplifying the oil demand impact of EVs beyond passenger cars, and where is this especially significant?

Goldman Sachs highlights that two- and three-wheeler EVs — which comprise a majority of total EV sales in India, Vietnam, and China — can displace one-third to one-half the fuel that a passenger car EV can, significantly amplifying the overall oil demand reduction in those markets.

Goldman Sachs says EV surge may cut oil demand by late 2027

Jun 22, 2026

Goldman Sachs forecasts accelerating EV adoption could trim global oil demand by up to 0.32 million barrels per day by late 2027. Rising EV penetration, especially in Asian markets, is expected to significantly displace fuel consumption following recent supply shock concerns.

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