What is Goldman Sachs' forecast for Brent crude prices in the fourth quarter and next year, and under what conditions could it exceed $120 a barrel?

Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude at $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 a barrel next year, assuming de-escalation of Middle East tensions. However, the bank warns that Brent could rally to more than $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz persist — a scenario driven by escalation in the Middle East and a decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels.

Why does Goldman Sachs consider the risks to its oil price forecasts 'tilted to the upside', and what specific geopolitical and logistical factors support this view?

Goldman Sachs considers the risks to its oil price forecasts 'tilted to the upside' due to ongoing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as potential further disruptions in the Red Sea. These risks are amplified by renewed US-Iran fighting and a threat from Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen to blockade Saudi oil shipments — flows that have been critical for rerouting disrupted Persian Gulf crude to customers. Additionally, lower global inventories in Q2 have left the market more vulnerable to supply shocks, even though a slump in Chinese imports and greater demand elasticity may temper price gains.

Goldman Says Brent Could Top $120 If Hormuz Disruptions Persist

Jul 20, 2026

Goldman Sachs warns Brent crude could exceed $120 per barrel if Middle East disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, despite a base case of $80. Analysts cite tight diesel markets and supply chain vulnerabilities as key drivers for potential price spikes.

bloomberg

2026-05-07

Report: Declining Global Oil Inventories May Lead to Regional Supply Shortages

2026-05-08

Goldman Poll: Hormuz Shipping Disruptions Expected to Persist Into Second Half

2026-05-11

Goldman, BofA Delay Fed Cut Calls After 'Last Straw' Jobs Data

2026-05-12

Goldman Sees Dollar Strength as Energy Shock Keeps Rates High

2026-05-14

Goldman Forecasts Two South Africa Rate Hikes Due to War