Why does Goldman Sachs say European gas prices need to rise above €100/MWh in December?

Goldman Sachs says European gas prices will likely need to rise above €100 a megawatt-hour in December for the continent to rebuild enough inventory to last the winter, because even the recent rally in Dutch front-month futures — which rose to a five-month high above €65/MWh — won’t be sufficient to divert enough liquefied natural gas from Asia, especially given ongoing Middle East supply disruptions that have reduced shipments via the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle and intensified competition for limited LNG cargoes.

What is the current status of Northwest European gas storage, and how does it compare to Goldman Sachs' base case?

At current rates, Northwest European gas storage will end this month at 51% full, which is 3.4 percentage points below Goldman Sachs' base case, according to analysts Samantha Dart and Laura Cyr in their note dated Sunday.

Goldman Says Europe May Need €100 Gas to Build Winter Inventory

Aug 24, 2026

Goldman Sachs warns European gas prices may need to exceed €100/MWh to replenish winter inventories amid Middle East supply disruptions. Current storage lags behind targets, though warmer weather could offset some demand pressure.

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