According to Goldman Sachs, what is the projected recovery level for oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz after the US-Iran war, and why is full pre-war capacity unlikely to return?

Goldman Sachs projects that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may recover to only about 70% of their pre-war level, with analysts stating that '70% of Pre-War Hormuz Flows Might Become the New 100%', because regional producers—including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq—have accelerated use of alternative export infrastructure (e.g., cross-country pipelines to Yanbu, Fujairah, and Ceyhan) that bypass the strait entirely, reducing strategic reliance on Hormuz even after its reopening.

What specific alternative export routes have Gulf producers used during the war, and how much oil is currently flowing through them versus Hormuz?

During the war, Saudi Aramco boosted usage of a cross-country pipeline to its Red Sea port of Yanbu; the UAE tapped its pipeline to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman; and Iraq sent oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Goldman analysts estimate current visible Hormuz flows at ~1.3 million barrels per day (bpd), plus ~1.6 million bpd from the Gulf of Oman (potentially including 'dark crossings'), while a total of 7.5 million bpd are flowing through Yanbu, Fujairah, and Ceyhan combined.

Goldman Says Hormuz Oil Flows May Recover to Only 70% After War

Jun 17, 2026

Goldman Sachs forecasts Hormuz oil flows may stabilize at 70% of pre-war levels following a US-Iran interim deal. Regional producers utilize alternative routes as the UAE pursues zero dependency on the strategic chokepoint.

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