What price range does Goldman Sachs forecast for Brent crude, and what two specific geopolitical developments would cause it to break out of that range?

Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude will trade in an $80–$90 per barrel range until there is either confirmation of a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or a significant escalation of their conflict.

According to Goldman Sachs, what is the estimated fair value of spot Brent crude, and what does this imply about current market pricing of geopolitical risk?

Goldman Sachs estimates spot Brent's fair value at about $80 a barrel, suggesting markets are pricing in only a modest risk premium despite ongoing uncertainty over Middle East oil supplies.

Goldman sees Brent at $80-$90 until US-Iran deal or major escalation

Aug 4, 2026

Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude trading between $80-$90 per barrel amid Middle East tensions and supply disruptions. The bank cites tightened global inventories and reduced exports from the Gulf and Russia as key drivers for the price range.

reuters

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