What does Goldman Sachs identify as the two opposing forces affecting oil prices amid the Iran war?

Goldman Sachs identifies 'significant upside price risks from potentially more persistent Mideast supply losses' — due to disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and shut-in production — and 'meaningful price downside from weaker demand', especially as higher prices trigger demand destruction for jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks; the bank notes that 'actual end-use oil demand may have fallen more in response to higher prices than expected'.

How much downside risk to Brent crude prices does Goldman Sachs estimate from lower oil demand in April, and what is its updated Q4 forecast?

Goldman Sachs estimates that April oil sales data from China and Western Europe imply about 2 million barrels a day of downside risk to its 'already low' demand estimates for the month, adding approximately $10 a barrel of downside risk to its fourth-quarter Brent crude price forecast of $90 a barrel.

Goldman Sees Two-Sided Risk to Oil Prices as Lower Demand Offsets Iran War

May 31, 2026

Goldman Sachs forecasts volatile oil prices driven by Middle East supply disruptions versus weakening demand in China and Western Europe. Analysts warn of downside risks to Brent crude forecasts despite geopolitical tensions impacting global shipments.

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