What is the revised 2026 global oil deficit forecast according to the Reuters poll, and how does it compare to earlier expectations?

According to the Reuters poll of analysts, the revised 2026 global oil deficit forecast is an average of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), roughly double the 750,000 bpd deficit forecast in April. This marks a sharp reversal from pre-Iran war expectations, which had projected a 1.63 million bpd surplus for 2026.

Why is the oil market expected to shift from a 2026 deficit to a 2027 surplus, and what key factors drive that outlook?

The market is expected to shift to a 2027 surplus of 1.9 million bpd due to recovering Gulf oil flows following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+'s planned unwinding of production cuts, robust U.S. and Latin American output, and weaker demand from China—HSBC trimmed its China demand forecast by 0.55 million bpd for 2027 due to electrification and substitution effects.