Why have analysts lowered their 2026 oil price forecasts, and what key development triggered this shift?

Analysts lowered their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began—reversing five straight monthly increases—because the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased concerns over prolonged supply disruptions. The Reuters poll shows Brent crude forecasts fell to $84.50 per barrel for 2026 from $90.44 last month, and U.S. crude dropped to $79.49 from $84.63, reflecting a more than 6% decline in estimates driven by restored shipping flows and reduced geopolitical risk premium.

What does the poll indicate about the 2026 oil market balance, and how is it expected to evolve through the year?

The poll indicates that the 2026 oil market is currently projected to be in a deficit of about 2 million barrels per day, but will shift to a small surplus of approximately 1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, assuming Gulf production is restored to near normal levels. This transition is attributed to the return of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—which had previously choked off nearly a fifth of global oil supply—and expectations that OPEC+ will continue raising output at a measured pace to regain market share without triggering a sharp price fall.