Why have analysts raised their 2026 oil price forecasts for the third time since late February, and what is the main reason cited?

Analysts have raised their 2026 oil price forecasts for the third time since the Iran war began at the end of February because they expect energy flows—particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—to take months to return to pre-conflict levels; the Reuters poll attributes the upward revision primarily to prolonged supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has slashed Middle East crude exports from ~18.3 million bpd before the crisis to nearly 8.8 million bpd since March.

What do analysts project for global oil supply and demand balance in 2026, and how do OPEC and the U.S. Energy Information Administration differ on demand growth?

Analysts polled forecast a large global oil supply deficit in 2026, ranging from 500,000 to 8 million barrels per day; on demand, OPEC revised its 2026 global oil demand growth downward to 1.17 million bpd from a prior estimate of 1.38 million bpd, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected a demand *decline* of about 420,000 bpd—reflecting weaker macro conditions, higher prices, softer trade flows, and GDP downgrades that are collectively slowing consumption growth even as supply tightens due to the conflict.

Analysts hike oil forecasts again as energy flows face slow recovery: Reuters poll

May 29, 2026

Analysts raised 2026 oil price forecasts amid ongoing Iran conflict disruptions, projecting Brent crude averages $90.44 per barrel due to Strait of Hormuz closures. Global markets face a substantial supply deficit despite potential OPEC+ adjustments.

reuters

2026-05-06

Reuters Poll: US Dollar Range-Bound Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions

2026-05-29

Analysts hike oil forecasts again as energy flows face slow recovery: Reuters poll

2026-06-30

Analysts Dial Down Oil Forecasts as Hormuz Reopening Eases Supply Concerns: Reuters Poll

2026-07-03

US-Iran War Still Trails 1979 Oil Shock by Total Losses

2026-07-22

Middle East War Deepens 2026 Oil Deficit Outlook, But 2027 Glut Still Looms