Trump’s economic team shifts its tone: 'Wait until next year!'

Trump himself has also changed his tune. Although the economy played a pivotal role in his successful re-election campaign, he now appears more inclined to focus on immigration, crime, and settling scores with those he perceives as enemies. Trump recently stated, 'Our big year—when the economy truly takes off and policy effects become fully visible—is actually not next year, but the year after.' This marks a clear shift from the messaging during his first week in office, when the economy was at the very core of his communications. This strategic adjustment reflects dual political and economic pressures facing the administration. Trump and the Republican Party are confronting a formidable challenge in the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats poised to potentially secure majorities in both the House and Senate. The advisors’ 'reassurance' strategy According to reports, in response to the August jobs report showing only 22,000 new positions created, Treasury Secretary Bessent told Trump: He believes employment data will begin rising once the policies of the 'Big Beautiful Bill' are fully implemented next year. In a closed-door meeting in the Oval Office, other advisors informed Trump that how he publicly addresses weak employment figures is ultimately up to him—and that he could easily sidestep such information by pointing toward the future. A senior administration official said advisors assured him that economic indicators would show improvement as 2025 draws to a close. White House spokesperson Kush Desai stated in a press release that the administration is 'focused on advancing supply-side reforms, securing trillions of dollars in manufacturing investment, and implementing historic trade agreements designed to restore America’s industrial leadership.' Economic reality versus political pressure Although Trump continues to boast about a strong economy, several key economic indicators remain underperforming. Monthly job growth has slowed, inflation continues to burden consumers, and housing remains unaffordable nationwide. Public perception of Trump’s economic leadership has grown increasingly negative in recent months. According to an AP-NORC poll conducted in September, only 37% of adults approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 62% disapprove.

Re-examining the Middle East’s oil through the lens of a failed war

Though the United States—the world’s largest oil producer—has achieved energy independence, it simultaneously exports massive volumes of crude oil and refined petroleum products while also importing large quantities of both. As such, the domestic U.S. oil market remains highly integrated with global petroleum markets. As the instigator of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, the conflict-triggered surge in international oil prices is now directly impacting the U.S. domestic petroleum market—pushing gasoline and diesel prices to their highest levels in four years, presenting Trump and the U.S. government with a serious dilemma. Before the war broke out on February 28, 2026, the national average retail price for regular gasoline in the U.S. stood at $2.98 per gallon, and diesel at $3.76 per gallon. By March 31, 2026, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average retail price for regular gasoline had risen to $4.02 per gallon—the highest since August 2022; the average diesel price reached $5.45 per gallon, approximately $1.70 higher than pre-war levels. On April 30, 2026, AAA data showed U.S. gasoline prices hitting yet another record high: the national average for regular gasoline climbed to $4.30 per gallon—an increase of 27 cents within just one week. In California, the average price for regular gasoline surged to $6.01 per gallon, breaching the $6 threshold. Since late February 2026, California’s gasoline prices have soared by 30%—the steepest rapid increase in the state’s fuel prices since 2022. As a nation built on automobiles, transportation expenses rank second among American households’ consumption expenditures. With 2026 being a midterm election year, the botched war and persistently soaring fuel prices have already eroded Trump’s approval ratings and jeopardized the Republican Party’s midterm prospects. On April 1, 2026, a U.S. public opinion poll showed Trump’s approval rating on economic issues plummeting to 31%—a new low during his presidency. The survey found that roughly two-thirds of Americans believe the current administration’s economic policies have worsened the U.S. economy—a view held by 10 percentage points more respondents than in January this year. As war-driven oil prices continue climbing, Trump’s approval ratings have declined further. According to an April 16–20, 2026 poll conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, only 33% of respondents approved of Trump’s overall job performance—a five-percentage-point drop from the previous month; support for his economic policies fell from 38% to 30%; and approximately 75% rated the U.S. economy’s performance in April as either 'very poor' or 'somewhat poor'—up from about 66% in February. Meanwhile, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll placed Trump’s overall job approval rating at 36%, with only 26% approving of his handling of high living costs. Public commentary suggests that although Republicans had originally hoped to retain majorities in both chambers following the 2026 midterms, Trump’s steadily declining approval ratings have cast serious doubt on whether the party can achieve that goal. During the 12-day war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran from June 13–24, 2025, international oil prices experienced only a brief, fleeting spike—peaking at less than $12 per barrel above pre-war levels—and promptly retreated to pre-war levels upon the announcement of a ceasefire.

Most Americans blame Trump for high prices as his economic approval hits new low, AP-NORC poll shows

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Most Americans blame Trump for high prices as his economic approval hits new low, AP-NORC poll shows

Most Americans blame Trump for high prices as his economic approval hits new low, AP-NORC poll shows

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