Trump is paying the price for his recklessness.

Domestic diesel prices in the United States have surged 87% compared to levels before the U.S.-Iraq War. To save face, Trump has stubbornly blamed Ukraine for the diesel price hike. To divert attention, he announced full U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz—implying that the price surge had nothing to do with Iran’s blockade of the strait. Yet Iran responded by attacking six oil tankers in the strait within a single day, pushing global oil prices up again to $110 per barrel. Trump’s attempt to suppress prices by importing Russian diesel has likewise collapsed. At this juncture, a major question arises: Aren’t Russia and Iran allies? Why hasn’t Iran cooperated in staging a charade—keeping the strait open, allowing oil prices to fall, and enabling “Trump II” to perform his heartfelt act unimpeded? In reality, just as there is no genuine friendship between the two Trumplike figures—only mutual interest—so too is the relationship between Iran and Russia driven solely by interest. When interests are at stake, how much room is left for friendship? There’s no such thing as a free lunch. Nor is there such a thing as cheap diesel. Trump is paying the price for his recklessness. Trump’s core political base is the MAGA movement—but even this base has fractured publicly over the purchase of Russian diesel. Steve Bannon and other leading MAGA figures have openly opposed Trump’s collusion with Russia. They represent the elite and soul of the MAGA movement, fully aware that cooperating with Russia is akin to “asking a tiger for its skin.” Unlike those who blindly follow Trump, they possess substantial influence and mobilizing power.

Trump can no longer move crude oil price charts.

The crude oil market’s sensitivity to Trump’s statements is systematically declining. At one time, a single tweet threatening Iran could trigger a 7% daily surge in oil prices; today, similar rhetoric barely stirs any market reaction. According to Bloomberg’s analysis of price movements, Trump’s influence on the global crude oil market has significantly weakened amid the protracted U.S.-Iran conflict. On April 1, Trump declared on television that he would strike Iran and send it “back to the Stone Age,” prompting an immediate spike in Asian morning trading—and ultimately driving oil prices up more than 7%, surpassing $109 per barrel. Yet on October 1, when Trump again warned Iran—“sign a ceasefire agreement, or you will cease to exist”—oil prices remained virtually unchanged. Identical threatening language elicited dramatically divergent market responses. According to a Bloomberg report dated October 8, crude oil traders interviewed stated they no longer focus on White House rhetoric, instead prioritizing hard data such as physical supply changes and shipping traffic volumes. Meanwhile, given the high unpredictability of U.S. wartime strategy, traders are actively reducing their position sizes. This shift not only affects energy markets but also further clouds inflation outlooks and triggers ripple effects across global interest-rate policy trajectories. From “one call, a hundred responses” to “desensitization”: seven months of eroded trust In the early phase of the Iran war, every word from Trump sent tremors through crude oil traders’ nerves. The specter of a blocked Strait of Hormuz long haunted the market, repeatedly priced in as the worst-case scenario. As this nightmare partially materialized—with shipping through the waterway nearly grinding to a halt—the global energy market suffered severe shocks. Yet over the subsequent seven months, Trump repeatedly signaled progress—or imminent agreements—in U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, only to abruptly reverse course days later; he even floated the idea of imposing transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, only to abandon it less than 24 hours later. Such whiplash-inducing policy signals have gradually led traders to regard his statements as unreliable price guides. “For months, headline news has spun like a carousel,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. “Trading this market now is essentially playing geopolitical roulette. Everyone I speak with is scaling back their positions.” Rob Thummel, Senior Portfolio Manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors LLC, added: “The White House’s constant back-and-forth statements have collectively paralyzed traders.” Narrowing price volatility and drying liquidity As traders step back to wait and watch, intraday volatility in crude oil prices is simultaneously contracting. According to Bloomberg’s analysis of intraday price action, the current daily high-low spread has shrunk markedly compared to early-war levels. A decline in attacks targeting energy infrastructure has further dampened market volatility.

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