Shell Oil: Amassed enormous wealth through colonialism and war; its assets surpass those of 80% of countries worldwide.

In the UK, all of Shell Oil’s tankers were requisitioned by the government to supply fuel to British expeditionary forces worldwide. While Anglo-American forces advanced triumphantly, Shell’s other major shareholder—the Netherlands—suffered misfortune. After Germany invaded in 1940, Shell’s Dutch headquarters was forced to evacuate Europe and relocate to Curaçao in the Caribbean, further weakening its control over Shell Oil. In the 1950s, as Britain’s national strength declined and colonies gained independence one after another, Shell Oil could no longer sustain its previous monopolistic business model, and its market share gradually shrank. Yet Shell remained inwardly calm—much like Eastern Europe during WWII—because although newly independent nations possessed oil resources, they lacked extraction capabilities and thus remained dependent on Shell’s assistance. For instance, in the Africa Oil Corporation—a joint venture established by multiple countries—Shell held a 65% stake and owned 35% of the Sahara oilfield. In Iraq and Qatar, Shell controlled 23.5% of production capacity. Moreover, Shell assisted Iran, Indonesia, and other countries in establishing state-owned oil companies and provided technical support—thereby diminishing these emerging nations’ motivation to develop independent oil-extraction technologies, locking them into long-term dependence on Shell. Should any country refuse to cooperate with Shell, the company resorted to traditional means—war. For example, in 1952, Shell Oil funded the Iraqi king to form a private armed force that invaded Oman to seize oil resources. This war lasted five years, ending only when Oman, exhausted of national strength, was defeated. As the Vietnam War neared its end in 1972, Shell seized the opportunity once again, gaining control over more than half of Vietnam’s proven oil reserves. Given Vietnam’s volatile situation, Shell specially appointed a senior police officer as manager. Resolving security issues through unofficial military means led to countless civilian deaths. Additionally, Nigeria’s and Zimbabwe’s civil wars in the 1970s were closely linked to Shell Oil. Following the 1973 global oil crisis, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other nations began recognizing the strategic importance of petroleum resources. Shell Oil operated in 80% of countries worldwide—a reality deeply entwined with historical colonial expansion and oil wars. Oil-producing countries such as Venezuela decided to unite via OPEC to jointly control oil prices, significantly curtailing Shell’s influence. The company therefore pivoted toward the natural gas market, discovering massive gas fields in the North Atlantic and supplying over half of Europe’s natural gas. By the 1980s, although Shell controlled 5% of global crude oil and 7% of natural gas, its monopoly-driven pricing power had sharply declined. Coupled with an excessive number of global branches, its profit margins steadily eroded—culminating in a $2.4 billion deficit in 1998. Shell was forced to sell over half its chemical plants and streamline subsidiaries. Focusing exclusively on oil and gas exploration, extraction, and refining—returning to its core business—Shell finally caught its breath, with revenue steadily climbing. By 2008, Shell Oil posted $24 billion in profits—the highest in its century-long history. In 2009, Shell secured 45% of the development rights for Iraq’s southern Rumaila oilfield—the single largest field, capable of yielding 5.6 billion barrels of crude for Shell. In 2015, Shell spent a staggering $70 billion.

On one side: a bond-market tsunami; on the other: an AI frenzy.

But tonight, sitting before my computer, I finished reviewing the latest batch of market data and macroeconomic updates just compiled—and sat frozen in my chair for a long while. The world is presenting an eerily parallel reality. While we’re on holiday, Hong Kong’s stock market traded normally today: the Hang Seng Index rose 1%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed nearly one percentage point—the details are available in WallStreetCN’s live market briefings. On the surface, property stocks like Shimao and富力 (R&F), as well as biotech firms like CanSino, surged sharply. Yet if you look closely at developments within the tech and industrial sectors, you’ll find everyone racing ahead with extraordinary intensity. Take the brokerage industry, for instance: activity has recently intensified dramatically. Previously, many large institutions insisted on developing their own large language models in-house—but attitudes have shifted entirely. Over ten brokerages have collectively integrated third-party platforms—including Kimi, WorkBuddy, and Tongyi Qwen—to aggressively capture entry points for AI-powered investment advisory and research services. Everyone suddenly realized that leveraging existing platforms to secure real-world application scenarios is far more practical than spinning wheels alone at one’s desk. Even deep-seated industrial frictions are rapidly easing: Huawei and Qualcomm have reached a multi-year cross-licensing agreement covering 5G, computing, AI, and networking—and Qualcomm plans to acquire part of Huawei’s U.S.-based patents. Meanwhile, Samsung Electro-Mechanics just secured a massive MLCC order worth nearly 2.9 trillion Korean won for AI servers. Even China’s National Development and Reform Commission issued a special statement today, pledging to open up construction of the nation’s six key infrastructure networks to private enterprises on equal terms. Look around domestically, and the narrative is remarkably unified: everyone is striving to reduce frictional costs, seize tangible footholds for AI implementation, and sprint forward. But shift your gaze globally—and the atmosphere instantly transforms. Just hours ago, the Middle East’s fragile calm was utterly shattered. The Houthi movement in Yemen launched large-scale, multi-round attacks on Saudi soil: Jeddah Airport and Najran Airport were struck, and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh appeared on the target list. Saudi Aramco’s refining facilities bore the brunt—marking the most severe threat to the Red Sea energy corridor since the 2022 ceasefire. Although Saudi Arabia’s energy minister urgently declared that east-west pipeline throughput had already reached 5.8 million barrels per day—and would fully resume operations within days—and although Shell’s CEO stated that Middle Eastern energy exports had rebounded to over 80% of pre-conflict levels, everyone knows that as long as missiles keep flying, the risk premium embedded in Red Sea shipping rates—and thus oil prices—cannot vanish into thin air. The EU has even scheduled an emergency meeting of its Oil Coordination Group for Wednesday. Geopolitical flames are flaring—and what truly sent chills down my spine was tonight’s surreal spectacle across Western financial markets. Global capital markets have fractured into two entirely separate, mutually unrecognizable parallel universes. On one side: an escalating, runaway global bond-market tsunami. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes surged to 5.34%; the 30-year yield hit 5.70%—both marking record highs since 2002. The newly released September ISM Services Price Pressures Index spiked to a four-year high, confirming that inflation remains stubbornly entrenched. Markets are now actively debating whether the 30-year Treasury yield could breach 6% within the month.

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