Diesel hits record high of $6.51 per gallon; top Republican leaders collectively pressure the administration to ban exports—likelihood of implementation stands at just 35% amid intra-party divisions.

Pressure is mounting rapidly within the Republican Party. As U.S. diesel prices surge to a historic high, Republican lawmakers from agricultural states have publicly urged the Trump administration to ban diesel exports to ease fuel-cost pressures on farmers and truck drivers. On Monday, the national average retail diesel price climbed to a record $6.51 per gallon—up more than 70% since before the outbreak of the Iran war in February this year. Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa directly urged Trump to suspend diesel exports via the social media platform X, writing in all capital letters: HIGH DIESEL PRICES ARE SUFFOCATING FARM INCOME. Several Iowa House members followed suit the same day, calling on the White House to “stop the bleeding,” with proposals including an export ban, suspension of fuel taxes, and financial aid for affected businesses. The White House has explicitly rejected this proposal. A White House official stated, “The administration is not currently considering an export ban or export restrictions,” citing Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s position: while an export ban could be considered *if* it demonstrably lowered prices, “that is not the case.” Energy consultancy Rapidan Energy estimates the probability of the White House implementing such a ban has reached 35%. Legislative action begins to take shape At the congressional level, calls for an export ban have escalated from individual statements to concrete legislative initiatives. U.S. Representative Tim Burchett of Tennessee introduced two bills: one would immediately ban diesel exports through January 2027; the other would establish a price-trigger mechanism—automatically activating an export ban whenever the national average diesel price exceeds $5.00 per gallon, and maintaining it until the price falls below $4.50. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last week he remains open to “exploring” an export ban, adding: If we have sufficient domestic supply yet continue exporting, that may be one pathway to solving the problem. Representative Ashley Hinson called for deploying “every available option,” including suspending diesel exports and establishing a diesel relief program.

Reports indicate the Trump administration is considering a 90-day diesel export ban; the White House later denied the report, and the U.S. Energy Secretary publicly opposed the measure.

The Trump administration is evaluating a diesel export ban to lower fuel prices—but internal policy disagreements have become public. Energy Secretary Chris Wright explicitly stated the ban would not work and could instead raise gasoline and jet fuel prices, placing him in direct conflict with Trump’s stance. According to a Wednesday report by Politico—citing five anonymous sources—the Trump administration is preparing a 90-day diesel export ban aimed at lowering persistently high energy prices amid mounting political pressure ahead of the November midterm elections. In response to the Politico report, U.S. diesel futures plunged sharply, falling over 7% at one point. Meanwhile, European diesel futures surged. Shortly thereafter, however, Reuters quoted a White House official who posted on X stating that Politico’s report about the administration preparing a 90-day diesel export ban was inaccurate. U.S. diesel futures rebounded somewhat but failed to fully recover the losses triggered by the Politico report. Nonetheless, the administration’s public internal rift has injected significant uncertainty into the policy’s trajectory. Energy Secretary Chris Wright bluntly declared at *The Economist*’s New York event that banning diesel exports “would certainly not work,” warning it would force refineries to cut production—thereby driving up gasoline and aviation fuel prices. The Department of Energy subsequently issued a statement asserting Wright “is fully aligned with the President and together they are exploring every viable option to reduce energy prices,” attempting to downplay the disagreement. Soaring diesel prices and intensifying midterm election pressure U.S. diesel prices are at historic highs. According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average diesel price stood at $6.52 per gallon on Wednesday—up 76% year-on-year. This surge stems from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the ongoing war in Ukraine, both contributing to persistent global diesel supply tightness. Skyrocketing fuel costs have drawn widespread complaints from farmers and other diesel users—and have evolved into a core political challenge for the Republican Party. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has already raised the issue of high diesel prices directly with the President. Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers representing highly competitive districts are also intensifying pressure on the administration to act.

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