Diesel hits record high of $6.51 per gallon; top Republican leaders collectively pressure the administration to ban exports—likelihood of implementation stands at just 35% amid intra-party divisions

Pressure within the Republican Party is intensifying sharply. As U.S. diesel prices surge to a historic high, Republican lawmakers from agricultural states have publicly urged the Trump administration to ban diesel exports to alleviate fuel-cost pressures on farmers and truck drivers. On Monday, U.S. retail diesel prices climbed to a record $6.51 per gallon—up more than 70% from pre-Iran war levels in February this year. Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa directly urged Trump on social platform X to suspend diesel exports, writing in all capital letters: "High diesel prices are strangling farmers’ incomes." Several Iowa House members followed suit the same day, calling on the White House to "stop the bleeding" through measures including an export ban, suspension of fuel taxes, and financial support for affected businesses. The White House has explicitly rejected this proposal. A White House official stated, "The administration is not currently considering an export ban or export restrictions," citing Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s position: while an export ban would be worth considering *if* it demonstrably lowered prices, "that is not the case." Energy consultancy Rapidan Energy forecasts a 35% probability that the White House will implement an export ban. Legislative action begins to take shape At the congressional level, calls for an export ban have escalated from individual statements into concrete legislative proposals. U.S. Representative Tim Burchett of Tennessee introduced two bills: one would immediately ban diesel exports until January 2027; the other would establish a price-trigger mechanism—automatically activating an export ban whenever the national average diesel price exceeds $5.00 per gallon, and lifting it only after prices fall below $4.50. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last week he remains open to "exploring" an export ban, adding: "If we have sufficient domestic supply yet continue exporting, that could be one pathway to solving the problem." Representative Ashley Hinson called for deploying "every available option," including suspending diesel exports and establishing a diesel relief program.

Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | September 23, 2026

- Wall Street commentary on Alibaba Cloud’s Qixi Conference: The 20 GW computing-power target is now actionable, lifting the revenue ceiling for cloud services. - From general-purpose AI to domain-specific intelligence, Qwen is accelerating its deployment of Personal Agents. Tencent’s Hong Kong-listed shares rose 5%—driven by Meta’s Muse going viral, prompting market re-rating of Tencent’s consumer-facing Agent ecosystem. Tencent’s strong gains stem primarily from investor enthusiasm over Meta’s AI Agent application Muse, triggering a “mapping logic” in markets: WeChat—with its massive social and mini-program ecosystem—is viewed as the most advantaged platform in China to replicate “Muse.” Markets anticipate Tencent will leverage its mini-programs and closed-loop payment system to reduce friction in AI delivery, and capitalize on its distribution and ecosystem advantages to seize early leadership in the B2C Agent race. Report: After hitting 200 million daily active users, Doubao begins downsizing its conversational AI team. According to the report, Doubao is China’s most widely used AI application, with DAU exceeding 200 million—but commercialization bottlenecks for its conversational products are becoming increasingly apparent. Multimodal features and free usage quotas are driving up costs, while Anthropic’s rapidly growing enterprise revenues are pushing major tech firms to shift focus away from conversational AI toward enterprise services and monetization. Overseas Trump’s UN General Assembly speech: A U.S.-Iran agreement may be reached post-U.S. midterms; oil prices could plunge—and AI policy remains “encouragement-only, no restrictions.” Trump stated he would never allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, emphasized that a major decision regarding Iran is imminent—whether to strike a deal or “destroy”—and urged other nations to economically isolate Iran. He added that if the Iran conflict ends, oil prices could even fall *below* pre-conflict levels; U.S. ammunition stockpiles far exceed projected usage; he opposes international agreements regulating AI, arguing that transformative new technologies inevitably bring great challenges—but the U.S. will not slow AI development nor stifle a technology that could prove “greater than the Industrial Revolution”; U.S. government documents will rename “artificial intelligence” as “superintelligence.” Trump signals support for banning diesel exports—refining stocks under pressure. Trump confirmed he has internally advocated for a diesel export ban and said a decision on implementation will come “very soon.” Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the administration is evaluating the feasibility of a full or partial ban. This policy signal directly weighed on refining stocks: Jefferies downgraded Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum from “Buy” to “Hold” on the same day; the S&P 1500 Refining & Marketing Index fell for the second consecutive day. Trump has long championed “American energy dominance” as a core policy pillar—so his current pivot toward assessing export restrictions is widely interpreted by markets as a direct reflection of mounting electoral pressure. Trump: U.S. officials met with an Iranian delegation on Tuesday; the meeting lasted three hours. Talks with Iran went smoothly, and another round has already been scheduled. - Iran says the meeting—between its foreign minister and a U.S. special envoy in New York—was held “at the U.S. request.” “We have no way back!”—Middle East shockwaves spread; Trump’s rural midterm base is “crumbling.” The U.S.-Iran war has now dragged on for nearly seven months, squeezing American farmers’ livelihoods via soaring diesel prices, tariff-driven increases in agricultural input costs, and export disruptions—a triple blow. The national average diesel price has risen to $6.49 per gallon, and many farms’ fuel expenditures have significantly exceeded budgeted amounts. This cost crisis is now translating into political discontent, with signs of erosion emerging even in traditionally solid Republican rural voting blocs. Saudi Aramco informally notified Asian refiners that crude loading at Yanbu port is set to resume.

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