What are the latest UK household inflation expectations according to the Citi and YouGov survey, and how do they compare to previous months?

According to the Citi and YouGov survey, year-ahead UK household inflation expectations fell to 3.4% in July, down from 3.8% in June; longer-term expectations also cooled to 3.7% from 3.9%. This decline occurred despite recent volatility in global oil and gas prices, including Brent crude briefly exceeding $100 a barrel before retreating to $85 following a pause in US-Iran hostilities.

How do the July 2024 inflation expectations relate to pre-Iran war levels and what does this suggest for Bank of England policy expectations?

The July 2024 year-ahead expectation of 3.4% is nearly back to the 3.3% level recorded in February—just before the initial US attacks on Iran—which then spiked to 5.4% the following month; Citi’s UK economist Callum McLaren-Stewart noted the data is now 'only slightly stronger than it was in February, when the modal expectation was the BOE to be cutting', indicating persistent market anticipation of interest-rate cuts rather than hikes.

UK Inflation Fears Ease Again Despite Volatile Oil Prices

Jul 28, 2026

UK household inflation expectations fell to 3.4% in July despite volatile oil prices, easing concerns ahead of the Bank of England's rate decision. Citi data shows long-term expectations cooled even as Brent crude fluctuated near $100 per barrel.

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