What immediate impact did the US military strikes against Iran and Trump's proposed 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz shipping have on global oil and gas prices?

The US military strikes against Iran and Trump's proposal to levy a 20% fee on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz triggered an immediate surge in oil and gas prices: Brent crude rose as much as 4.6% to $87.08 a barrel — its highest level in over a month — before settling about 1% higher; Dutch natural gas (August delivery) jumped nearly 3% to €52.8/MWh, the highest since early April; and UK natural gas (August delivery) climbed 3.3% to 129.4p/therm, the highest in over three months.

How did financial markets revise their expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and European Central Bank following the escalation in US-Iran tensions?

Fears of higher inflation from rising oil prices led financial markets to significantly increase expectations of interest rate hikes: for the first time in a month, traders priced in a quarter-point UK rate rise by September — likely followed by another by year-end — whereas at the start of the month, swaps had priced in less than a quarter-point increase; similarly, markets began forecasting a quarter-point ECB rate hike in September and another by December, up from negligible expectations earlier in the month when a fragile ceasefire was in place.

Oil Prices Surge as US-Iran Clashes Raise Odds of Interest Rate Hikes

Jul 14, 2026

Oil and gas prices jumped following US military strikes on Iran, with Brent crude rising over 4% before settling after Trump proposed a transit fee. Inflation fears from higher energy costs increased expectations for Bank of England and ECB rate hikes.

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