The Middle East is triggering 'widespread force majeure' across the global chemical industry.

Formosa Plastics Taiwan announced force majeure on its petrochemical products on March 12, citing shortages of key raw materials such as ethylene and propylene, compounded by logistics delays caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Morgan Stanley estimates that approximately 970,000 tons/year of polyethylene (PE) capacity in Northeast Asia is affected. LyondellBasell declared force majeure on polyolefin sales by its European subsidiaries—Basell Sales & Marketing Company and Rotterdam Olefins & Polyolefins—citing market uncertainty and procurement difficulties arising from the Middle East conflict; however, Morgan Stanley notes that contractual protections and provisions under Dutch civil law limit the actual production impact. Singapore’s The Polyolefins Company (TPC) also declared force majeure, stating that its upstream supplier PCS has been severely impacted by the Strait of Hormuz situation, forcing multiple production lines to halt—accounting for roughly 270,000 tons/year of PE and 625,000 tons/year of polypropylene (PP). Indonesian company PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk declared force majeure on March 2 for 755,000 tons/year of PE and 590,000 tons/year of PP, attributing the disruption to maritime and raw material delivery interruptions caused by deteriorating security conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. On the spot market, North American PE prices rose an average of 15.1% compared to the last week of February; North American PP rose 25.0%; Western European PE rose 8.6%; and Western European PP rose 7.1%. Chlor-alkali and vinyl products: Chinese enterprises lead in force majeure declarations The chlor-alkali and vinyl product chain is the sector where Chinese companies have issued the most force majeure declarations in this round. According to a Morgan Stanley report, 5.2% of global PVC capacity, 5.4% of VCM capacity, 6.4% of EDC capacity, and 1.4% of caustic soda capacity are now under force majeure—these figures represent newly added volumes tracked in this round. Tianjin Bohua Chemical Development declared force majeure on March 11, covering 905,000 tons/year of caustic soda, 1.5 million tons/year of EDC, 1.29 million tons/year of VCM, and 1.37 million tons/year of PVC. The company stated that upstream raw material suppliers had formally declared force majeure due to the Middle East conflict, causing severe and sudden disruptions to its own production and operations. Tianjin LG Bohai declared force majeure on March 10, covering 280,000 tons/year of caustic soda, 640,000 tons/year of EDC, 350,000 tons/year of VCM, and 400,000 tons/year of PVC, citing supply interruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade and a consequent gradual reduction in production. Formosa Plastics likewise declared force majeure across its chlor-alkali chain; Morgan Stanley estimates this involves approximately 1.792 million tons/year of EDC, 1.64 million tons/year of VCM, and 1.19 million tons/year of PVC. Indonesian company Sulfindo Adiusaha declared force majeure on March 9, covering 336,000 tons/year of caustic soda, 370,000 tons/year of EDC, 130,000 tons/year of VCM, and 110,000 tons/year of PVC. European firm INEOS Inovyn also declared force majeure on PVC exports to its customers. LNG and other products: Local Middle Eastern production hit first and hardest

What India cannot withstand is, surprisingly, the war in the Middle East.

As soon as the war broke out, daily life in India descended into utter chaos—starting with the kitchen going cold. In major cities like New Delhi and Mumbai, ordinary citizens could no longer cook meals. Queues for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders stretched for kilometers; families brought bedding and camped day and night—waiting several days just for a chance to buy one cylinder—becoming commonplace. On the black market, LPG cylinder prices surged over threefold; even those with money found cylinders nearly impossible to obtain. Nearly 30% of restaurants and street food stalls nationwide were forced to shut down—after all, customers can’t survive on raw rice. Energy shortages quickly triggered widespread power rationing: in Uttar Pradesh, daily blackouts exceeded eight hours; conditions in slums were even more dire—electricity was available for only two or three hours per day, rendering even fans unusable. India has long perfected a bizarre practice—dubbed by some as a ‘world-class intangible cultural heritage’: mass electricity theft. Across Indian slums and towns, shocking scenes are ubiquitous: long bamboo poles tipped with iron hooks serve as tools for stealing electricity. Men, women, and children alike risk electrocution, directly hooking the pole onto high-voltage lines—accompanied by a sharp sizzle of current—to light bulbs and spin fans, while electricity meters remain motionless, registering zero consumption. These people operate with astonishing audacity—barefoot or wearing flip-flops—and attempt manual connections with sheer luck determining survival: success means free electricity; failure means instant electrocution. Power lines crisscross streets and alleys like tangled spiderwebs; utility poles bristle with illegally tapped wires—unregulated and, effectively, unregulatable. Official Indian data admits that 27% of national electricity is stolen annually, and over 10,000 people die each year from electricity theft and leakage accidents—a fatality rate stable enough to rival some war-torn countries. Now, with the full-blown energy crisis, India has plunged into a surreal, dystopian reality: crowds fill streets wielding bamboo poles to tap into power grids; households lack cooking fuel and resort to candles; people queue for hours in daylight to secure basic supplies; nights pass in total darkness. A war thousands of miles away has literally thrust India back into a semi-primitive state. Do you think this is the full extent of the crisis? India’s industrial sector is faring even worse. Gujarat—the home state of Prime Minister Modi and dubbed ‘India’s Guangdong’—is the world’s largest tile-producing region. Yet today, 450 of its 670 tile factories have halted operations entirely. In western India’s automotive supply chain, 60% of small- and medium-sized foundries are barely surviving; the steel industry has completely collapsed. India relies on natural gas for 65% of its sponge iron production—consuming up to 100 billion cubic meters annually. With natural gas supplies now severed, steel output has plummeted over 40%, paralyzing the entire supply chain. No natural gas? Fine—just skip cooking. No electricity? Fine—go to bed early. Factory shutdowns hurt, but don’t immediately cost lives. Yet the next crisis poses a truly existential threat—one capable of pushing India toward national collapse. If the Middle East conflict drags on for another month, India’s worst nightmare will arrive: urea shortages, triggering total agricultural collapse. India may appear to be an agricultural powerhouse and grain exporter—but beneath this glossy surface lies a fragile, festering vulnerability. Its agriculture depends almost entirely on fertilizers—especially urea—consuming a staggering 36 million tons annually. Domestic production falls drastically short, forcing heavy reliance on imports.

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