How does the current oil price compare to the IMF's April 2026 growth forecast baseline, and what is the exact benchmark used?

The IMF stated that current oil prices are only about 3% higher than the $82.22 per barrel average oil price assumed in its April 2026 global growth forecast (which projected 3.1% real GDP growth). This baseline was set in mid-April after March price spikes, and it assumed oil would fall to $76 per barrel in 2027 if the conflict ended quickly. On the day of the April forecast’s release, Brent crude traded at $94.80 — notably above the $82.22 baseline — and as of the latest update, August Brent futures stood at $94.79, while December contracts were at $86.18.

What key factors does the IMF identify as determining future oil price stability and the validity of its current growth forecast?

According to IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack, oil price stability hinges critically on the duration of the ongoing conflict and, specifically, on when and how quickly the Strait of Hormuz reopens. She declined to confirm whether the IMF’s current ‘reference forecast’ remains valid, noting instead that the spot price remains higher than the futures price used in forecasting — a discrepancy the IMF will incorporate into its next global growth forecast update scheduled for July. Kozack also confirmed that due to the prolonged conflict, the global economy has effectively shifted into the IMF’s ‘adverse scenario’, under which growth would fall to 2.5% this year.

IMF Says Oil Prices Close to Baseline April Forecast

Jun 4, 2026

The IMF reports oil prices are roughly 3% above its April baseline forecast of $82.22 per barrel. Stability depends on geopolitical factors, particularly the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

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IMF Says Oil Prices Close to Baseline April Forecast

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