Why did the IMF skip issuing a baseline forecast for the global economy, and what does this signal about current economic uncertainty?

The IMF skipped issuing a baseline forecast because, as Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated, 'there was little historical precedent on which to base a credible baseline forecast' for both 2025 and 2026 — making economists need to 'be humble' and instead rely on scenario-based projections; this reflects exceptionally high uncertainty and risk, particularly due to geopolitical tensions like the U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptive trade policies, and such an approach 'should be rare' but was used twice during his tenure — first in April 2025 after Trump's sweeping global tariffs, and again ahead of the July 8 forecast release.

What role did strategic petroleum reserves play in mitigating oil price spikes from the Middle East war, and why is that buffer now less effective?

Strategic petroleum releases — combined with production adjustments by refiners — helped avert a sharper rise in oil prices by offsetting only 3% of global supply loss instead of the initially feared 10–15%, but Gourinchas warned these reserves are now 'fairly depleted', meaning countries 'would have less room for maneuver if the conflict flared again', significantly reducing their capacity to cushion future supply shocks should the ceasefire collapse.

Outgoing IMF Chief Economist Sees Risks, Shifting Trade Ties and Continued Uncertainty on Global Outlook

Jun 26, 2026

Outgoing IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warns that depleted strategic petroleum reserves limit future options if Middle East conflicts resume, risking higher oil prices. He also notes shifting global trade ties away from the US following recent tariff implementations.

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Outgoing IMF Chief Economist Sees Risks, Shifting Trade Ties and Continued Uncertainty on Global Outlook

Outgoing IMF Chief Economist Sees Risks, Shifting Trade Ties and Continued Uncertainty on Global Outlook

FAQ