The excess profits generated by the war have once again made major oil companies a target of attack.

On June 29, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to gas station retailers nationwide via Truth Social: reduce gasoline prices to approximately $2.50 per gallon—or face 'serious problems.' He warned of zero tolerance for so-called 'illegal price gouging' and escalated an action he had been pursuing for weeks to compel energy companies to pass on wholesale price reductions to consumers. At the time, international crude oil prices fluctuated between $60 and $68 per barrel—a relatively low level by recent historical standards. Trump’s argument was straightforward: if raw materials are cheap, finished products should be too. This was no one-off outburst. The June 29 appeal followed a similar statement Trump issued on June 24; prior to that, on June 25, he had already directly accused oil companies of exploiting consumers by failing to pass on lower wholesale costs. Beyond sharp rhetoric, Trump’s June 29 post also carried threats—at least implicit ones. He ordered the Department of Justice to investigate oil companies, specifically focusing on the gap between the fuel prices paid by retailers and those actually charged to consumers at the pump. California received special attention in this post. Trump pointed out that the state’s fuel tax policies impose a heavy burden on drivers. As Trump intensified his focus on gasoline prices, major oil companies stood poised to record extraordinary profits. Soaring global oil prices inevitably generate substantial excess profits for oil producers, exporting nations, and oil companies—a pattern consistent across the industry’s 160-year history. Yet, as Trump and the U.S. government grapple with persistently high domestic fuel prices, highly profitable major oil companies have found themselves squarely in Trump’s crosshairs. Industry expert Tsvetana Paraskova detailed this situation in an article published on OilPrice.com on July 6, 2026. Paraskova noted that major oil companies are expected to report unexpectedly strong second-quarter profits—ExxonMobil’s and Chevron’s earnings are projected to more than triple—driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which sent crude prices surging and boosted refining margins. Although industry insiders point out that retail gasoline prices lag behind declines in crude prices, this profit surge is intensifying political pressure: President Trump has demanded gasoline prices fall to $2.25–$2.50 per gallon and launched investigations into potential price manipulation. Oil companies counter that markets are cyclical, attributing current gasoline price increases primarily to low fuel inventories, improved refining economics, and supply-chain delays—not profiteering. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, crude oil prices have surged to their highest level in four years, and oil majors anticipate unexpected gains in Q2. ExxonMobil’s and Chevron’s profits are projected to triple from Q1 to the April–June quarter, as the most severe supply disruption in oil market history impedes Middle Eastern oil exports, drives up crude prices, amplifies market volatility, and depletes petroleum inventories—including those in the United States.

Profit margins have soared to a six-year high, refineries are celebrating—but why don’t consumers feel the drop in oil prices?

November 15, 2025, 12:30 p.m. UTC These are indeed prosperous days for refineries—but far less pleasant for ordinary motorists filling up at gas stations. In Europe, the United States, and Asia, large refineries continue to profit handsomely from their core business: processing crude oil into essential fuels like gasoline and diesel, then selling them at profitable margins. Yet today’s situation features one crucial difference: the scale of global supply threats exceeds anything seen before. Ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, temporary shutdowns at major plants across Asia and Africa, and permanent closures of refineries across the U.S. and Europe have collectively removed millions of barrels per day of diesel and gasoline from the global market. Beyond these immediate impacts, traders are also bracing for upcoming developments. The U.S. is set to impose sanctions on Lukoil PJSC and Rosneft PJSC; the EU will introduce new restrictions on fuels refined from Russian crude. These measures further strain an already taut supply chain. Ironically, although global oil prices are falling, retail gasoline prices remain under pressure—a reality the U.S. government, which places high priority on 'energy affordability,' is unlikely to accept. Eugene Lindell, Head of Refining Products at consulting firm FGE NexantECA, stated that global refinery margins are currently extraordinarily high. Regardless of location, the message to the entire refining industry is unambiguous: maximize production. Bloomberg’s fair-value data shows that current refining margins in the U.S., Europe, and Asia have reached their highest levels since at least 2018. Such stellar profitability has propelled refiners’ stock prices upward: Valero Energy Corporation and Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.Ş. (Tüpraş) have posted sharp gains, while Poland’s PKN Orlen has surged over 100% year-to-date. Although markets worry about crude oversupply depressing prices, widespread disruptions across the global refining system have constrained the total volume of crude that can be converted into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. This benefits operating refineries—but offers no relief to end consumers, who feel none of the benefits from the steep decline in crude prices. Attacks on Russian refineries continue unabated. Just this month, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck facilities in Saratov, Orsk, and Volgograd—directly disrupting Russia’s fuel production. Last month, Russian petroleum product exports were already nearing multi-year lows—and that was before drone strikes damaged critical loading infrastructure in the Black Sea port city of Tuapse. Production disruptions elsewhere have further tightened product supply. In Kuwait, the massive Al-Zour refinery—capable of processing 615,000 barrels per day—currently operates only one of its three crude distillation units. In Nigeria, the Dangote mega-refinery recently restarted a key gasoline production unit—only to announce it will shut down for approximately 50 days of maintenance in the coming weeks.

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Valero Sees Fuel Margins Rising Again Despite Price-Cut Efforts

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