Why does ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane argue that a global oil shock from the Iran war may require the ECB to raise interest rates, despite slowing euro zone growth?

Lane argues that because the Iran-related oil shock is global—not regional like the 2022 Ukraine war—it increases energy costs worldwide, eliminating import-price relief and creating a compounding effect on final goods prices; this raises risks of broader inflation spillovers into wages and expectations, especially given heightened price sensitivity after pandemic-era and Ukraine-war inflation, thus warranting an 'appropriately forceful or persistent' monetary response even amid weak demand.

How does Lane distinguish the inflationary impact of the current Iran-driven oil shock from the 2022 Ukraine war shock?

Lane states the Iran oil shock is a 'global shock' affecting the whole world, unlike the Ukraine war’s predominantly regional impact on Europe, resulting in a larger indirect inflation effect—1.5 percentage points over three years for a 10% global energy cost rise versus about 0.4 percentage point for a regional shock—because rising costs across international suppliers cumulatively elevate final prices without offsetting import-channel relief.