What does Fabio Panetta mean by saying the ECB's outlook remains 'fragile' despite potential US-Iran peace progress?

Panetta describes the outlook as 'fragile' because 'upside risks to inflation continue to coexist with downside risks to growth,' requiring constant monitoring of geopolitical developments, energy markets, supply chains, wages, and inflation expectations; he stresses that monetary policy must avoid committing to a predetermined path due to this dual-risk environment.

Why does Panetta argue that the current energy supply shock differs from the 2022 crisis, and what implications does that have for ECB policy?

Panetta states the current situation is not a replay of 2022 because demand is weaker, real interest rates are higher, and the shock has affected oil more than gas—unlike 2022 when energy-driven inflation surged past 10% and forced aggressive tightening; he adds that the current shock is large and potentially persistent, with infrastructure damage and uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz governance possibly sustaining price pressures even after conflict subsides, thus undermining the textbook 'look-through' approach to temporary supply shocks.