Many people believe the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is only temporary, because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) lacks the capability to fully control it. Do you agree?

Iran’s oil exports remain constrained: EO imagery collected over Kharg Island on May 15 and May 16 detected no crude oil tankers loading at the terminal. As of May 17, the island had recorded six consecutive days without crude oil production. May 12: During the reporting period, Windward observed increased IRGC fast-boat activity near commercial shipping lanes. The number of ‘dark fleet’ tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz continued to rise; pre-positioned ‘dark fleet’ tankers near Larak and Chabahar increased; and U.S. interdiction operations targeting Iran-linked vessels escalated. Despite the deteriorating environment, commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues. Windward identified multiple tanker movements in and out of ports—including LPG and product tankers linked to the ‘shadow fleet’, VLCCs bound for Kharg Island, and—since the Strait’s closure in February—the first successful transit of a Qatari LNG vessel. Meanwhile, vessels increasingly exhibit adaptive operational behaviors, including prolonged ‘dark fleet’ anchorage, ship-to-ship (STS) transfers, and potentially physical hull protection measures. Iran’s export operations appear increasingly strained. No confirmed tanker departures from Kharg Island have been observed since May 7. Within protected Iranian waters, queues of ‘dark fleet’ tankers have intensified—indicating mounting buffer pressure on Iran’s export capacity and worsening logistical bottlenecks under blockade conditions. ‘Dark fleet’ tanker activity through the Strait of Hormuz continues to expand: On May 8 at 13:21 UTC, imagery of the northern passage showed five inbound vessels—including one crude oil tanker, one bulk carrier, one chemical tanker, one tanker, and one LPG carrier. Later on May 9, imagery showed six vessels transiting the Strait—including one VLCC via the southern passage and five vessels via the northern passage. Inbound vessels included two VLCCs, two bulk carriers, and two tankers. On May 11, satellite imagery showed nine commercial tankers transiting the Strait—six outbound and three inbound. Qatari LNG vessels resume transit under controlled conditions: Movement data for Qatari LNG vessels through the Strait of Hormuz shows limited but significant signs of resumption. The AL KHARAITIYAT (IMO 9397327) successfully transited the Strait via the northern passage on May 9—marking the first Qatari LNG vessel to do so since Iran’s February 28 blockade. The vessel is en route to Port Qasim, Pakistan, with an expected arrival on May 11. This transit appears authorized within the U.S.–Iran ceasefire framework brokered by Pakistan. Reports indicate Iran previously granted approval as a goodwill gesture. Its timing suggests the clearance was granted under the broader framework—not as a one-off exception. Two additional Qatari-linked LNG vessels remain idle near Qatari waters. Both vessels were turned back by the IRGC prior to the formal ceasefire on April 6. No updated transit authorization for these two vessels has yet been confirmed.

First transit of a Qatari LNG vessel through the Strait of Hormuz

The weather in Shanghai this weekend was excellent. On Saturday, I met up with friends to exchange market insights—some investment research ideas are still under active tracking. We’ve consistently discussed natural gas, sulfur, chemical fertilizers, food, and coal with you—all because, beyond crude oil and gold, these are sectors where major structural shifts are unfolding. Some positions remain on the left side of the curve—still unentered—while others have already been initiated and are now trending right. The underlying logic has long been laid out; we won’t repeat it this week. Instead, here are some marginal updates: A Qatari LNG vessel successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz on May 9—an event certain to cause short-term market dislocation. Maritime traffic data for May 9: A liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier, having loaded cargo at Ras Laffan Port, traversed the Strait along the Qeshm–Larak Island corridor, bound for Port Qasim in Pakistan. This marks Qatar’s first seaborne LNG export since the outbreak of conflict. Previously, an empty Omani vessel transited on April 3; ADNOC’s ‘Mubarak’—a UAE-flagged vessel—reportedly succeeded on April 28, destined for China and expected to arrive on May 15. But the Qatari vessel carries distinct significance: Qatar accounts for roughly 20% of global LNG supply, and prior attempts had all ended in turnbacks. This successful transit is therefore highly consequential—even though the Middle East remains volatile, ‘conditional passage’ may become increasingly common. Qatar’s export resumption is undoubtedly bearish for short-term sentiment—supply is increasing—but the medium-term supply deficit remains structurally rigid. Global natural gas supply remains unresolved. As previously detailed in earlier analyses, 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity has suffered permanent loss. Repairing such complex industrial infrastructure typically takes 3–5 years. Meanwhile, Australia’s export capacity—severely damaged by a cyclone in March—remains in recovery. With major European and Asian consumers preparing for summer replenishment, short-term disruptions will not alter the underlying trend: the natural gas price floor will continue rising. During our livestream, we mentioned possibly initiating a position in agricultural commodities—a logical extension of this very thread—and indeed, developments this week reinforce that view. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) issued an official warning on May 7. FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu stated bluntly: “Fertilizer shortages triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade will lead to reduced crop yields in the second half of 2026 and throughout 2027.” He emphasized strongly: “This crisis has transcended geopolitical boundaries and is now striking at the core of the global agrifood system.” This constitutes the FAO’s highest-level public alert. Per FAO’s latest data, global wheat output in 2026 is projected to decline by approximately 2% year-on-year. Farmers are shifting to crops requiring less fertilizer. Russia’s IKAR has downgraded its wheat export forecast—from 46 million tons to 44.5 million tons. The global fertilizer supply chain has been severely disrupted; recovery will take far more than just a few months. Any easing in the Middle East affects only short-term sentiment—not the medium-term structural shortage in chemicals and fertilizers. I also reviewed brokerage research and found something interesting: Most brokers characterize the agriculture sector as currently possessing ‘option-like’ portfolio characteristics. What does that mean? Downside risk is limited—both valuation and earnings have hit bottoms—while upside potential hinges entirely on whether external catalysts materialize. CITIC Securities puts it directly: The energy crisis supports agricultural commodity prices through dual channels—cost transmission and demand substitution.

Qatar-linked LNG Traffic Through Hormuz Strait Resumes Despite Conflict

Sep 28, 2026

QatarEnergy-linked LNG vessels resumed visible transits through the Strait of Hormuz after a hiatus caused by US-Iran conflict fears. Multiple tankers successfully delivered cargoes to India, China, and Pakistan in late September.

reuters

2026-07-29

Qatar Sends Its First LNG Shipment Through Hormuz in Three Weeks

2026-08-28

Qatar Extends LNG Force Majeure as Hormuz Traffic Remains Halted

2026-08-28

LNG Wrap: Asian LNG Above $23 as Qatar Extends Force Majeure

2026-09-28

Qatar-linked LNG Traffic Through Hormuz Strait Resumes Despite Conflict

2026-10-07

First LNG Train at QatarEnergy's NFE Project Ready to Start, Two Sources Say

Qatar-linked LNG Traffic Through Hormuz Strait Resumes Despite Conflict

FAQ