The Graham Act takes effect; the U.S. envoy can no longer tolerate it; Trump rushes to distance himself from Russia.

The rumor about 'Krasnov' originates from Musayev, a former KGB officer, who disclosed that in 1987, he worked for the Sixth Directorate of the Soviet KGB in Moscow—the department’s primary mission being to recruit spies and intelligence sources from businessmen in capitalist countries. It was in this year, he claimed, that the KGB recruited 40-year-old American businessman Donald Trump, assigning him the codename 'Krasnov'. 'Krasnov' remains nothing more than an unsubstantiated rumor—no evidence supports it, and it falls squarely within the realm of conspiracy theories. I, Lao Gao, have always been skeptical of such theories. Yet, looking at Trump’s series of actions since taking office, conspiracy theory aside, nothing else seems capable of explaining them all. Now, U.S. media have reported that Trump’s son, Donald Jr., accepted massive financial gifts from Russians—making Trump’s behavior suddenly far more comprehensible. After all, Trump is, first and foremost, a shrewd real estate developer who pursues maximum profit in every move he makes. The former head of counterintelligence at the U.S. National Security Council stated that Russian intelligence agencies have long sought to establish relationships with U.S. officials—and their families—with money serving as the most time-tested and effective tool. Although Donald Jr.’s conduct may not be illegal, its impact on Trump is unmistakable—especially ahead of the midterm elections. Hence, Trump is urgently trying to disassociate himself from Russia. Beyond publicly claiming ignorance of the matter and demanding his son return the funds, he must also project a tough stance toward Russia. On September 17, Trump announced on social media that negotiations between the U.S. and Poland over establishing a new military base had achieved major progress, and site-selection details would soon be made public—calling it a 'historic step' for the great U.S.-Poland alliance. Since assuming office, Trump has repeatedly signaled intentions to withdraw U.S. troops from Europe and gradually reduce the American military presence there. On May 1, the Pentagon announced plans to withdraw an armored brigade from Germany, with full withdrawal expected between November this year and May next year. Poland shares borders with Ukraine and Belarus and serves as NATO’s frontline bulwark against Russia. Trump’s sudden announcement of a new military base in Poland—regardless of whether the plan proves credible—clearly signals his hardline posture toward Russia. On September 18, Trump signed the '2026 Lindsey Graham Sanctions Against Russia and Iran Act,' thereby formally enacting the legislation. This bill—championed during his lifetime by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham—is dubbed the 'hell-level' sanctions act against Russia. Its most notable provision authorizes the president to impose additional tariffs of up to 100% on goods imported into the U.S. from the top importers of Russian oil and gas—while also including waiver clauses. This grants Trump considerable discretion: he may levy up to 100% tariffs on the top five buyers of Russian energy—or reduce or even waive those tariffs entirely. Trump’s swift signing of this bill—regardless of whether he ultimately implements it—demonstrates his outwardly tough stance toward Russia. Trump’s apparent shift in attitude toward Russia likely stems from the Kremlin’s dismissive response to his mediation efforts. Earlier, Trump relaunched U.S. mediation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, dispatching Vitkov and Kushner on shuttle diplomacy between Moscow and Kyiv. Recently, The New York Times revealed details of Vitkov and Kushner’s negotiations in Moscow: Putin reportedly told the two American envoys that Russian forces would seize the entire Donbas region within months—and that he remained determined to continue striking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, plunging the country into a harsh winter.

Why did Trump postpone a new round of sanctions against Russia?

By inviting Putin to attend the G20 summit, Trump extended three gestures of goodwill: postponing sanctions, while simultaneously pressuring both Ukraine and Europe. Having just signed the sanctions law against Russia, Trump then personally suspended its enforcement—sending goodwill signals to Putin while pressuring Zelenskyy. Can such moves truly deliver a ceasefire? On October 16, Trump signed an executive order exempting multiple sanctions, restrictions, and tariffs stipulated under the Graham Act. In his explanation to Congress, he stated the move served 'U.S. national interests.' Importantly, this suspension applies only to measures newly introduced by the Act—not a wholesale reversal of preexisting sanctions against Russia. Yet for Russia—which had just concluded a diesel supply agreement with the U.S.—this constitutes a tangible signal of de-escalation. So why did Trump choose this precise moment to suspend the new round of sanctions against Russia? The most immediate reason is Trump’s urgent need to lower fuel prices. In September, the U.S. retail price of diesel hit a record high—surging 94% above pre-U.S.-Iran conflict levels. With less than one month remaining before the midterm elections, 74% of American adults expressed 'extreme concern' over energy prices, and 84% of registered voters cited economic issues as a key factor in their voting decisions. Diesel is no ordinary commodity—it powers farm machinery and hauls agricultural products, directly impacting state budgets in traditional Republican agricultural strongholds like Iowa and Nebraska. Thus, on October 9, Trump finalized a diesel supply agreement with Russia, and the Treasury Department simultaneously announced eased sanctions on Russian diesel trade—aiming to boost market supply and suppress futures prices. Yet if the Graham Act’s sanctions mechanism were fully activated, it would precisely undermine this sole, last-hope tool for price containment: sanctions would strangle Russian diesel exports, pushing diesel prices even higher—and shaking Republican electoral strongholds. In other words, Trump’s signing of the exemption order isn’t a gift to Putin—it’s a self-rescue maneuver. Still, how much Russian diesel can actually lower prices depends on actual deliveries, refining capacity, and global supply-demand dynamics. Reaching an agreement does not guarantee immediate, noticeable relief for U.S. consumers. Trump’s risk lies in this: if concessions to Russia are already delivered but fuel prices fail to drop significantly, he will struggle to explain to voters what, exactly, this deal secured. A deeper concern is that the new law’s implications extend well beyond Russia. White House documents list measures—including imposing 100% tariffs on imports from qualifying major buyers of Russian oil and gas. Full implementation could thus escalate energy sanctions into broader economic conflicts involving multiple trading partners. Tariffs are paid by U.S. importers, and costs may ultimately be passed on to businesses and consumers. Affected countries might also retaliate. While Trump seeks lower fuel prices, he risks simultaneously raising costs for other goods. From this perspective, suspending sanctions serves both to safeguard the diesel agreement and to avoid domestic political pressure stemming from a new wave of trade friction. More importantly, Trump wishes to preserve room for negotiation with Putin. In fact, suspending the Graham Act is merely one link in a broader 'carrot' strategy toward Moscow. Around the time of signing the exemption order, the Trump administration advanced two other conciliatory moves directed at Moscow: formally inviting Putin to attend the G20 summit in Miami; and proposing—through U.S. negotiators Vitkov and Kushner—a plan for European allies to unfreeze certain Russian assets and transfer them to a Washington-supervised 'special-purpose financial institution.'

Trump Waives Tariffs and Sanctions on Russian Energy Under Graham Act

Oct 16, 2026

President Trump waived tariffs and sanctions on Russian energy exports under the Graham Act to lower domestic diesel prices ahead of midterm elections. This move suspends punitive measures against Moscow despite potential congressional backlash.

bloomberg

2026-10-13

Zelenskyy says Russia strikes energy facilities despite Trump claim of an energy ceasefire

2026-10-16

Trump Waives Tariffs and Sanctions on Russian Energy Under Graham Act

Trump Waives Tariffs and Sanctions on Russian Energy Under Graham Act

FAQ