What growth rate does RBI MPC member Nagesh Kumar project for India this year if oil prices remain near $70 per barrel, and how does it compare to the RBI's current forecast?

Nagesh Kumar, an external member of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee, stated that India’s growth could reach '7% plus' this year if global oil prices remain near $70 a barrel — a figure that exceeds the RBI’s current forecast of 6.6% for the year through March 2027. He attributed this upward revision potential to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, progress in US-Iran peace talks, and reduced risks to oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz, noting that India imports about 90% of its oil needs and is therefore highly sensitive to energy price swings.

According to Nagesh Kumar, what type of inflation has recently affected India, and why does he believe it is receding?

Kumar characterized the recent inflation spike as 'not demand-driven inflation but a cost-push kind of inflation', primarily driven by tightness in global oil markets. He argued that this inflation is 'beginning to self-correct with oil prices coming down', and emphasized that 'second-round effects so far are very muted, if at all', meaning the initial energy price shock has not significantly spilled over into broader price gains across the economy.

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RBI MPC Member Says India Growth Could Reach 7% if Oil Prices Remain Near $70

Jun 24, 2026

An RBI MPC member suggested India's growth could surpass 7% if oil prices stay near $70/barrel, citing reduced geopolitical risks. The central bank plans to revise forecasts during its August 5 monetary policy review.

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