Why are crude oil prices bearish while refined fuel prices are bullish, according to the CEOs quoted in the article?

According to TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne and Shell CEO Wael Sawan, the oil market has split because crude oil faces a bearish outlook while refined products like diesel are experiencing strong bullish pressure — a situation Pouyanne called 'very strange.' This divergence stems from two key supply disruptions: Ukrainian drone attacks have curbed Russian fuel supplies by 3–3.5 million barrels per day, and heightened shipping risks in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea — combined with soaring transit costs (e.g., $20 million for a very large crude carrier through the Strait of Hormuz) — have halted all refined product tanker movements through Hormuz, severely constraining global fuel availability despite relatively stable crude flows.

What specific impact do Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have on global fuel markets, as stated by Patrick Pouyanne?

Patrick Pouyanne stated that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have curbed Russia’s fuel supplies by 3 million to 3.5 million barrels a day — a massive disruption that directly contributes to tightness in global refined product markets, helping drive diesel premiums to near-record highs and exacerbating the bullish pressure on fuels despite weak demand signals in crude oil.

Oil CEOs See Market Split With Bearish Crude, Bullish Fuels

Aug 24, 2026

TotalEnergies and Shell CEOs warn of a diverging oil market where crude prices remain bearish while refined fuel prices surge due to Middle East conflicts and Russian refinery attacks. This split threatens global supply chains and keeps consumer gasoline prices elevated above $4.

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Oil CEOs See Market Split With Bearish Crude, Bullish Fuels

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