Wei Wei Explains | With Three Rounds of U.S.-Iran Conflict, Why Has Oil Price Not Surged Past $100?

Reporter: Wang Yiwei At 08:35 a.m. Beijing Time on September 7, 2026, New York crude oil futures stood at $91.668 per barrel, while Brent crude futures traded at $96.280 per barrel—prices remaining range-bound. This sideways consolidation appears somewhat unexpected. Because following two prior rounds of conflict on August 30 and September 1, a third round erupted between the U.S. and Iran on September 5. In this latest round, the U.S. military unusually attacked Iranian oil tankers—damaging two and sinking one—and U.S. Central Command even posted video footage of the sunken tanker on social media. Such a direct strike on Iranian oil tankers constitutes a major signal; conventional wisdom would predict an immediate sharp oil price surge. Indeed, after the first two rounds of conflict, prices on both major markets surged nearly $10 per barrel. Now, with the U.S. military launching attacks on tankers—the most direct assault yet on oil infrastructure—the market was widely expected to react strongly. In my earlier commentary, I had likewise forecast that continued escalation could push oil prices past $100. Reality, however, tells a different story: despite continued conflict and the unprecedented tanker strikes, oil prices rose only moderately—failing to breach $100. Why? Building upon my previous analysis, I offer the following supplementary explanations: First, Trump is serious—and Iran dares not be. Iran’s primary crude export hub is Kharg Island, through which approximately 90% of its crude exports flow. On September 6, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad told Iran’s state television that Kharg Island had endured roughly 550 attacks over recent months—but remained operational. Paknejad’s statement indirectly confirms that most prior U.S. strikes targeted military facilities—not oil fields, petroleum infrastructure, or tankers. This time, attacking tankers represents a deliberate U.S. escalation—Trump means business. If Iran retaliates in kind—sinking U.S. vessels (tankers or warships)—the U.S. military would likely escalate further, possibly bombing petroleum infrastructure on Kharg Island or even striking Iranian oil fields directly. That risk is simply too great for Iran to gamble on—and it dares not take it. Markets have factored in this calculus, hence the muted price reaction. Second, Iranian leadership’s rhetoric carries implicit caveats—confirming its reluctance to escalate. Following the third round of U.S.-Iran conflict, Iran ramped up propaganda efforts—issuing stern, fiery statements. Yet senior Iranian officials’ language contained subtle qualifiers—firmness laced with restraint. On September 6, Ali Akbar Velayati, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, announced that Iran would soon designate restricted zones within the Strait of Hormuz; any vessel entering those zones would be placed on a sanctions list.

Oil Prices, Gas Prices, and Freight Rates All Surge—Global Energy Markets Enter a New Phase of High Tension

Both Brent and WTI crude prices breached the $100-per-barrel threshold once again. On February 28, 2026, war broke out among the United States, Israel, and Iran. By March 12, Brent crude futures closed at $100.46 per barrel—the third time in history that international oil prices had surged past and settled above the $100 mark. Thereafter, oil prices fluctuated in tandem with evolving developments in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war. After the conflict entered its third phase on August 30, international oil prices surged rapidly: Brent and WTI futures respectively crossed $100 per barrel for the sixth and fourth times this year on September 9 and 10. Industry experts Tsvetana Paraskova and Irina Slav reported on these latest price trends in articles published on the website OilPrice.com on September 9, 10, and 14, 2026. (1) Brent Crude Price Breaks $100 Per Barrel for the First Time in Two Months On Wednesday, September 9, during early Asian trading hours, oil prices briefly surpassed $100 per barrel amid persistent Middle East crises—which eroded market hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations and near-term restoration of normal oil supplies. By early European trading hours on Wednesday, benchmark Brent crude rose 2.25% to $100.12 per barrel—the highest level since July 24, when the initial escalation in Middle East tensions first drove prices higher. U.S. benchmark WTI crude also rebounded, gaining 1.80% to $94.67 per barrel—approaching the $95 threshold. The immediate catalyst for this week’s price rally was the renewed outbreak of conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. military destroyed Iranian oil tankers, while Iran—and its Houthi allies in Yemen—launched Tuesday attacks on regional energy infrastructure, including targets in Saudi Arabia. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced late Tuesday evening, September 8, that U.S. forces had sunk five Iranian crude-carrying vessels—reiterating that the action constituted retaliation for ballistic missile strikes by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against U.S. naval ships. Four vessels—M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1, and M/T Riesco—were sunk in the Gulf of Oman; a fifth, M/T Derya, was struck near Kharg Island. Iran responded by launching ballistic missiles toward Jordan and warning that vessels operating in the Persian Gulf could become targets. Iranian missiles struck U.S. military facilities in Jordan; the Jordanian Armed Forces confirmed that 20 ballistic missiles were launched from Iranian territory, with 18 intercepted and destroyed, and the remaining two landing in uninhabited areas—causing no casualties. “Recent developments further reinforce our view that meaningful progress toward resuming negotiations remains distant. Meanwhile, markets are likely to continue pricing in substantial risk premiums,” wrote Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, commodity strategists at ING, in a report issued early Wednesday.

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