How long do banks estimate it will take for oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to recover after the U.S.-Iran interim peace deal?

Banks estimate it will take several months for oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to recover, with Goldman Sachs projecting Gulf exports to normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July and crude production to recover by October; BNP Paribas similarly states that even in a best-case scenario, normalization would take several months and require bringing back about 12 million barrels per day of shut-in production; Bank of America adds that mine clearance alone would likely take months, not days, due to logistical challenges.

What are the main constraints cited by banks on the resumption of normal oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz?

The main constraints cited by banks include shippers’ risk aversion—highlighted by Goldman Sachs as a potential bottleneck despite adequate ship availability—and Iran’s geopolitical objectives during the upcoming 60-day nuclear deal negotiations; BNP Paribas emphasizes the scale of production restoration needed (12 million bpd), while Bank of America underscores the time-intensive nature of mine clearance and its impact on sustaining supply deficits into late 2026.

Oil flows through Hormuz will take time to recover, banks say

Jun 18, 2026

Banks forecast oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may take months to normalize after the U.S.-Iran deal, with Goldman Sachs predicting export recovery by July. Analysts warn logistical challenges could delay full production resumption.

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